Hearing of the Subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee - Determining What Action Must be Taken to Protect Residents of the Devils Lake Region from Rising Waters

Hearing of the Subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee - Determining What Action Must be Taken to Protect Residents of the Devils Lake Region from Rising Waters

HEARING OF THE ENERGY AND WATER SUBCOMMITTEE OF THE SENATE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE

SUBJECT: DETERMINING WHAT ACTION MUST BE TAKEN TO PROTECT RESIDENTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE REGION FROM RISING WATERS

CHAIRED BY: SENATOR BYRON DORGAN (D-ND)

WITNESSES: COLONEL JON CHRISTENSEN, COMMANDER, U.S. ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS ST. PAUL DISTRICT; SCOTT DUMMER, HYDROLOGIST-IN-CHARGE IN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER; DALE FRINK, STATE ENGINEER IN THE NORTH DAKOTA WATER COMMISSION; FRED BOTT, MAYOR OF DEVILS LAKE, NORTH DAKOTA; DENNIS WALAKER, MAYOR OF FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA

Copyright ©2009 by Federal News Service, Inc., Ste. 500, 1000 Vermont Ave, Washington, DC 20005 USA. Federal News Service is a private firm not affiliated with the federal government. No portion of this transcript may be copied, sold or retransmitted without the written authority of Federal News Service, Inc. Copyright is not claimed as to any part of the original work prepared by a United States government officer or employee as a part of that person's official duties. For information on subscribing to the FNS Internet Service at www.fednews.com, please email Carina Nyberg at cnyberg@fednews.com or call 1-202-216-2706.

SEN. DORGAN: (Sounds gavel.) I call the hearing to order. This is the hearing of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water for the United States Senate.

Today the subcommittee is going to take testimony on the continued flooding problems and the issues, particularly in the Devils Lake Basin, and the projected potential flooding issues that we will face this spring in the Red River Valley of North Dakota.

I held a hearing -- field hearing on the issue of increased lake levels in Devils Lake last March. At that time there was a 20 percent chance, we were told, that Devils Lake would match the record level that we saw in May of 2006; that is, 1,449.2 feet. Now one year later the National Weather Service with the latest estimate that I have seen indicates that there is a 98 percent chance that the levels in Devils Lake will exceed the record high that was seen in 2006. There is a 25 percent chance that the levels will exceed 1,452 feet.

This is a serious issue, and much, of course, have changed -- has changed, rather, in the last year. Since 1980 we've seen a substantial increase in precipitation in the Devils Lake area. In that region there's a 72 percent chance, we are told by the Weather Service, that these conditions will persist for 10 years and a 37 percent chance they will continue for 30 years.

Devils Lake is a body of water with no natural outlet, unless, of course, the lake rises to the level of 1,459 feet, at which point it's expected the water would flow naturally into the Cheyenne River and across the divide.

The precipitation forecast and the dramatic changes that we've seen in recent years are pretty troubling in terms of what we might expect with respect to Devils Lake. I believe it is the only closed basin with respect to no outlet. We have a very small state outlet that is not letting a lot of water out at this point. But the Great Salt Lake and Devils Lake are two basins that are closed.

This is a very difficult and hard-to-understand problem for most people because we don't have lake flooding in our country; we have river flooding where the river courses and gorges and takes houses and buildings with it. And you can see the fury of it, and then it subsides and the event is over. That has not been the case with Devils Lake. A closed basin, this lake has a flood now that has come and stayed and now will get worse, we are told.

In a report issued by the U.S. Geological Survey on 2008, people who live in an elevation of 1,454.6 feet will have the same chance of being flooded in the next 10 years as people who live at the edge of a 100-year flood plain along a river, for example. According to the National Weather Service prediction, there's a 2 percent chance those folks at 1,454 will be flooded this year. Having been through this for some years we now understand that when there's a 2 percent or 1 percent chance, it is not unusual for it to happen in Devils Lake. We've seen it happen before.

Last lake -- last week, rather, NOAA also issued a report that the Red River Basin in North Dakota has a 50 to 75 percent chance of, quote, "major flooding," unquote, this spring.

I'm holding this hearing to try to understand what is happening and what the projections are for both circumstances -- Devils Lake and the Devils Lake Basin, number one, and the Red River Valley, number two. We'll receive testimony on both, but we have asked Colonel Jon Christensen, the commander of the St. Paul District of the Army Corps of Engineers, to be with us; Scott Dummer, hydrologist-in-charge of the North Central River Forecast Center of the National Weather Service; and Myra Pearson was to be with us -- she was not able to -- her travel arrangements were cancelled from the -- chairwoman of the Spirit Lake Nation. And Dale Frink, the state engineer from the North Dakota State Water Commission is with us. And in addition, Fred Bott, the mayor of Devils Lake, is with us, and Dennis Walaker, the mayor of Fargo.

And Dennis, I understand you were selected to represent the interests of the Red River Valley, Wahpeton, Fargo, Grand Forks. I appreciate your making the trip to Washington on short notice.

I believe that the National Weather Service forecast for the potential flooding of both Devils Lake -- the continued flooding in Devils Lake and the basin, and the Red River Valley makes this a very important and timely hearing. Hopefully we can address these issues to the extent possible and, prior to any flooding that occurs, develop any mitigation and other policies that will minimize flooding.

We last met on the subject of flooding at Devils Lake, as I said, less than a year ago. We had experienced a couple of relatively calm years, a few relatively calm years with the lake elevation holding at Devils Lake around 1,447. The hearing last year was held to kind of jump-start the thinking about what might need to be done to protect people's homes and infrastructures if the water level continued to rise, and what would the triggers be? What kind of things would trigger additional activity such as levees and so on?

I included $5 million in the 2007 emergency supplemental bill to allow the Corps of Engineers to start the process of planning about how to continue to protect the community of Devils Lake from these lake levels. And the corps, I know, is using that funding, has had a number of meetings in the region to assess public support for various protection options. And Colonel Christensen will discuss that in some detail.

The National Weather Service forecast recently is what has added to my concern and urgency about this. They predicted that -- a 99 percent likelihood that Devils Lake will exceed the record storage level at 1,449.2 due to the abundant snowfalls in the region. And there -- as I said, they predicted also now just recently that a 50 to 75 percent chance of major flooding in the spring in the eastern part of the state, particularly the Red River Valley, as a result of abundant snow and rain that we've had in recent months. And Scott Dummer will talk more about those forecasts.

All of us who have joined here have been involved in very significant flood flights in the past, probably no two people more than Mayor Walaker and Mayor Bott. These flood fights are difficult.

Floods have visited the Red River Valley. A flood that has visited and stayed with respect to Devils Lake causes very substantial damage, a lot of concern by the people who live there.

We've done some work in virtually all of the communities. We've done a lot of work in Devils Lake with respect to roads and levees and mitigation issues. We've done a lot of work in the Red River Valley, Wahpeton Breckenridge, Fargo-Moorhead, Grand Forks, East Grand Forks. Grand Forks and East Grand Forks had the largest completion of the significant flood protection project, but all of the communities have since the flood 10 years -- 11 years ago now or 12 years ago hit us, all of the communities have done a lot of work. And we'll hear a little about that today.

But, you know, we need to try to get ahead of all of this as quickly as we can to understand what might happen and what we need to do as a result of it. In Devils Lake we've done a lot of work by the Army Corps. My understanding from the corps' estimates, if we have to raise the levee at Devils Lake once again, which may what -- may very well be likely with these forecasts, that is a very expensive proposition. There's lots of ramifications with respect to raising the banks or levees. We're in a -- you know, we're in a situation here where this is an emergency, but we also have very significant fiscal problems. And I know the city of Devils Lake doesn't have the kind of resources for local matches for much.

So, you know, we also are now just today and likely will be completed this afternoon or this evening with the stimulus program or economic recovery plan -- they worked through the night, you know, on trying to get all of that together. I just came from a meeting on that. And that's going to have some emergency funding for various things as well. The Corps will have I think probably around 4, 4.6 billion dollars. And then the question is would we have projects that are ready here that could be accessed from that program as well?

I want to make sure that we have all of the fundings that -- the funding that is necessary to address a proper flood fight on the Red and the Red River Valley and the things that we need to do to make sure that we are prepared for what is now expected to be an almost certain substantial rise and an almost certain record level of flooding at Devils Lake.

I want to just put up a chart that shows you what we have seen now with the projections. The gray represents a 90 percent probability. This line is the record line for Devils Lake. That's 1,449.13. That's been the highest level for Devils Lake. And, of course, all of this is at flood level. I mean, it's -- but at 1,449.13, as you can see, the projection is with a 90 percent confidence that we're going to begin to go -- we're going to exceed the highest level of Devils Lake at some point in April. And the 50 to 90 percent confidence is the blue. And the 10 to 50 percent confidence is the red. So you can see what could happen up to 1,452, 1453, at which point we're at very serious issues I think with roads, roads built as dikes but not really engineered for that purpose. At what point do you have too much stress on those roads? That's certainly true with respect to the -- on the Indian reservation especially.

So we have a lot of questions about all of this. And again, the more recent projections are 50 to 75 percent major flooding in the Red River Valley persuades me that we need to include that as a part of this discussion.

So I appreciate all of you coming to this hearing. And I want to begin and have a discussion with the Corps of Engineers, Colonel Jon Christensen, who's the district commander at the St. Paul District.

Colonel Christensen, thank you. If you would turn your microphone on you may begin.

COL. CHRISTENSEN: Chairman Dorgan, I'm honored to appear before you to report on the Corps of Engineers' current efforts to address the rising lake levels of Devils Lake. My testimony will address the situation regarding Devils Lake and how the Corps of Engineers could continue to support the people of this lake region.

This past year we have been working with the residents and the local agencies to address the potential continued rise of Devils Lake. The National Weather Service is forecasting an almost 99 percent likelihood the water level of Devils Lake will exceed the recent record lake level of 1,449.2 set in May 2006. There is also a 25 percent probability that the water level at Devils Lake will exceed 1,452.1 feet, 22 percent possibility the water level will exceed a height of one foot below the current dike protection level of 1,455.

We are taking these forecasts very seriously. Recent meetings in Bismarck, North Dakota reinforce the urgency felt by the local officials and their concerns that construction proceed as quickly as possible.

Since updating you last March, the corps team has had several public meetings in the city of Devils Lake, on the Spirit Lake Reservation and in other communities such as Minnewaukan and Cooperstown. The purpose was to identify all the potential solutions for combating a future lake rise, screen and eliminate these alternatives that were not feasible.

The alternatives were evaluated to determine if the alternative was effective in maintaining a reliable level of flood-risk management at the city of Devils Lake. Other criteria included environmental effects, social effects, expected acceptability, "implementability," risk and cost. This resulted in the conclusion that one of the immediate actions to afford reduced flooding risk to the city of Devils Lake was to raise the existing embankments from an elevation of 1,460 to 1,465 and extend them to tie back into high grounds. And as -- (inaudible) -- of the embankment system for the city of Devils Lake, we used the damn as our criteria for -- (inaudible) -- technical design.

SEN. DORGAN: Colonel, can I just -- let me just interrupt you for a moment and ask on a point you're just raising, you said 2 percent possibility the level will exceed a height of one foot below the current dike protection level at 1,455. Our dike protection is 1,460 with the five-foot freeboard, is that correct, above --

COL. CHRISTENSEN: Yes, sir.

SEN. DORGAN: And that gets to what you just described of 1,460 to (1,4)65. If you're at 1,465, what is your dike -- real dike protection level?

COL. CHRISTENSEN: It's the same five feet level of protection -- (inaudible) -- underneath that.

SEN. DORGAN: All right, thank you.

COL. CHRISTENSEN: In designing the embankment system from the city of Devils Lake we used them as our criteria for reviewing technical design. This was done due to long periods of time that water would remain against the embankments. Recently we determined that we should apply some dam safety criteria to other aspects of the design because of the amount of water, the time the water would remain against the embankments. This includes the analysis of when the embankments should be raised.

While there are other alternative alignments still under consideration for the -- (inaudible) -- banks, we are prepared to accelerate our design schedule on the most critical reach. The most critical reach is the -- (inaudible) -- reach, which is subject to the greatest wind and wave action. The challenge is to begin construction soon enough to stay ahead of possible future years of flooding.

While the existing embankments will contain the high lake levels projected this year, the risk of exceeding these elevations increases each year, a similar projected increased lake levels until there is a 17 percent probability that the current level of protection would be exceeded between 2010 and 2013.

Since it will take two to three years of construction to complete a raise of embankments, it is important that the construction be initiated soon. We will continue to work with the city of Devils Lake on its emergency action plan, communication of associated risks to the public and other tools available to help reduce flood risks.

While the focus of the funding from Public Law 110-28 Title 3 Chapter 2, titled U.S. Troop Readiness, Veterans Care, Katrina Recovery and Iraq Accountability Appropriations Act 2007, was for the study of alternatives and design of raising and extending the existing city of Devils Lake's embankments, the corps also identified the need to coordinate with other areas bordering the lake, specifically the Spirit Lake Nation and Minnewaukan.

I am told to continue to provide technical flood risk reduction assistance to support them as they develop their responses to this spring's lake level forecast.

We are particularly concerned about the Spirit Lake Nation. Some areas are currently reliant on emergency temporary levees that were built during previous floodplains. These were constructed to keep water at bay until a permanent solution could be identified. The solution has been identified by the Federal Highways Administration but has not yet been constructed. While construction of the work will be started this summer, the lake may come up this spring before the permanent projects are in place. We will continue to work with the tribe, Bureau of Indian Affairs, North Dakota Department of Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration to ensure that public safety is a top priority.

I would like to end by providing a progress update on other corps projects in the basin. Progress has been made on turning over the projects that raise the city of Devils Lake embankments to a current height of 1,460 feet. The project was turned over to the city on September 30th, 2008. At that time we were able to provide FEMA with reasonable assurance that the embankments would safely contain the 1 percent flood elevation as determined by the United States Geological Survey. This is part of the process to keep the city out of the floodplain outlined in the FEMA flood insurance maps. However, in general we would encourage the residents of the region to buy flood insurance to protect their investment just as they buy homeowner's insurance.

We understand there are many challenges to be overcome in the coming months. The Corps of Engineers will continue to work in our partnership with other federal, state and local agencies as long as our assistance is needed.

Again, thank you for allowing me to testify today. Mr. Chairman, this concludes my testimony. I would be happy to answer any questions you have.

SEN. DORGAN: Colonel, thank you very much.

Next we'll hear from Mr. Scott Dummer, the National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Mr. Dummer, thank you. You may proceed.

MR. DUMMER: Good morning, Chairman Dorgan. I am Scott Dummer from NOAA's National Weather Service. I serve as the hydrologist in charge of the north central river forecast center located in Chanhassen, Minnesota.

NOAA's weather, water and climate programs work to monitor conditions and provide forecasts to meet the nation's need for reliable and accurate information. Thank you for inviting me to discuss the latest National Weather forecast for the water levels at Devils Lake and the related science and coordination required to produce those forecasts.

This past fall, precipitation was 200 to 300 percent of average across eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. This was the wettest fall on record for the cities of Devils Lake, Fargo and Grand Forks. Soil moisture observations taken just prior to freeze-up in early December revealed nearly saturated moisture levels in the upper eight inches of soil across the Red River Valley. This includes those areas that feed into Devils Lake. Observations are critical for our understanding and predictions, including river-gauge observations from the United States Geological Survey as well as radar, temperature and precipitation observations.

The onset of winter came abruptly as temperatures plunged in early December. The quick, hard freeze occurred with normal snow cover. Near-saturated soil moisture conditions allowed the frost to quickly penetrate to the ground to a depth of two feet. Snow fell on 23 days in December with 24 and a half inches falling in Devils Lake after December 14th. By the end of the month, new December snowfall records were established for Fargo and Grand Forks. The water content of the snow pack was 170 to 300 percent of average levels. January precipitation and snowfall were near normal levels, while temperature -- or temperatures remained well below average.

The result is a very heavy snow pack and very wet soil conditions. We believe when this year's snow pack melts it will make a major contribution to flooding in the Red River Basin, which includes Devils Lake. The Devils Lake Basin is large and flat, which results in unusually long travel time for precipitation or snowmelt to reach Devils Lake.

Current extended-range forecasts suggest the water levels at Devils Lake will peak in late June through early July, which is normal for this area. The current forecast calls for an almost 99 percent likelihood the water level at Devils Lake will exceed the recent lake level of 1,449.2 feet set in May 2006. We continue to monitor the situation closely, update our forecasts using the latest information available to us, and provide briefings to federal, state and local officials.

Now I will speak briefly about some of the science and tools behind our forecasts. Our river and lake-level forecasting system integrates soil moisture, snow and ice pack, seasonal precipitation and temperatures. It continues to yield more complete and comprehensive forecast information through the implementation of the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, or AHPS for short.

AHPS is a new and essential component of our climate, water and weather services. Through the implementation of the Web-based AHPS, we are extending the range, quantifying the certainty and improving the timeliness and accuracy of our river forecasts and warnings. We are also making this information available in user-friendly text and graphical products.

The AHPS provides forecasts of river and lake levels over periods ranging from an hour to a season and for areas large and small. AHPS includes river forecast information such as how high the river or lake will rise, when the river or lake will reach its peak and how long the flooding will continue.

AHPS also provides better information to water managers and city officials. This helps them make decisions such as when and where to conduct evacuations, how to use reservoir storage capacity and releases, and when to reinforce levies and dikes and at what level.

There are currently 2,237 AHPS forecast points across the nation, 404 within my area of responsibility, including one at Devils Lake. Our confidence in our forecast and outlooks is based on our new AHPS capability and the environmental conditions, which include the excessive snow pack, the very wet soil conditions and expected precipitation and temperatures for the next nine months.

At this time it is not possible to forecast how much additional snow will fall before the start of a normal snow-melt cycle. Historically an additional 20 to 25 inches of snow can be expected to fall by the end of March. As conditions can change prior to snowmelt, the National Weather Service will continue to carefully monitor the situation. Snow melt typically occurs in late March or early April. We update our long-range forecasts every month or more frequently if conditions warrant. Once snow melt begins we will issue daily forecasts for the lakes and rivers on our area, including Devils Lake.

Mr. Chairman, this concludes my testimony. I thank you for the opportunity to discuss the National Weather Service's role in forecasting lake levels for Devils Lake. The threat for flooding this spring in that part of the country is high. The National Weather Service will continue to monitor the situation closely and work with federal, state and local officials to ensure they have the information needed to make the best decisions possible to prepare for flooding.

I would be happy to answer any questions you may have.

SEN. DORGAN: Mr. Dummer, thank you. You've painted a pretty ominous picture of what might be ahead of us in the next several months in North Dakota. But we appreciate the work the National Weather Service does to give us their best estimate of what might happen.

Mayor Walaker, you have been involved in flood fights in many different ways. I -- in the major '97 flood I recall you standing on the top of a dike. You were -- you led the flood fight in the city of Fargo, and the Fargo Forum actually printed a cartoon of you standing on the top of the dike with a red cape on. But I think the folks in Fargo understood the importance of your work in that flood fight in '97. So it's not as if this issue of flooding is a stranger to you.

We appreciate your coming. You're now, of course, the mayor of the community and will be engaged once again. But I'm interested in hearing your perspective of what this might mean with the Weather Service suggesting the risk of major flooding in the Red River Valley this year and where we are relative to where we were in 1997.

You may proceed.

MAYOR WALAKER: Senator Dorgan and members of the committee, reflecting back to 1975 when I joined the engineering department in the city of Fargo, there is a certain amount of always optimism because you can't enter these events without some optimism that you're going to succeed. But it gets tiring.

We thank you for inviting me -- us to testify today on behalf of the city of Fargo in regards to flood issues in our community and the entire Red River Valley. As mayor of Fargo I can tell you from experience, flooding in the valley is the number one cause for concern when it comes to natural disasters. I have firsthand experiences in dealing with the rising waters in our community along with many of our staff.

Prior to becoming mayor in 2006 I was the head of the public works for the city and one of the lead-person staff responding to flooding conditions in our community.

Before I relate to you some of the flood issues in Fargo I want to address some of the more general flood issues in the entire Red River Valley. For the most part the Red River of the North from Lake Traverse located in North Dakota -- sorry, South Dakota, Minnesota and South Dakota border to Winnipeg Manitoba, Canada has very little elevation drop. On average the fall is about one foot per mile. The land surrounding the river is very flat. It's been described as a bathtub, and the Red River is where the drain is.

For the most part the topography of the island -- of the land in Minnesota is higher than North Dakota property. The Red River flows north into Hudson Bay, thus the river melts faster in the south end of the stream than the north end. This causes problems such as ice dams pooling the water in the upper reaches because the frozen river system in the lower reaches is not ready to accept water flowing north.

We all have to realize it is the only river in the United States that flows north. It starts and it flows north into Canada. There are some rivers that start in Canada, come down and then -- and flow north, but this is the only one that begins in the United States and ends up in Hudson Bay.

As you are aware, there's a number of cities along the river experiencing severe drought, flooding -- or severe flooding in 1997 that have addressed their problems through assistance of the federal and state governments. Grand Forks, North Dakota, East Grand Forks, Minnesota, Breckenridge, Minnesota and Wahpeton, North Dakota have all developed a flood protection system that meets the Corps of Engineers certification process for levees.

Back in '97 we were basically -- since we were successful in our flood fight to allow the other cities to receive so as the question always has been is it better to win than it is to lose. I still think winning is the answer.

Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada improved their bypass diversions after the '97 flood. As well, with federal expenditures, they're exceeding $800 million. Duff's Ditch as it was currently called, or Duff's Folly, was widened to double basically the size in their bypass. One of the things about 1997 was it was the largest deployment of the National Guard in Manitoba in the history of the country.

I've been in touch with Mayor Brown from Grand Forks on the current status of their flood projects. Attached is Mayor Brown's observations.

Since 1997 we have experienced three other significant flood events. One of the events was a summertime flood in 2000; it was called a hidden flood because it flooded so many inland areas of our city, while two spring events in 2001, 2006 also fell within the top ten floods of all time in Fargo. Why is this? Is it weather patterns? Is it drainage issues? Is it farming practices? I would say it is a combination of all of them.

After the 2006 flood I was invited down to Abercrombie, North Dakota by one of its previous mayors to survey the conditions and what's causing this quickness of flooding in the valley. As we traveled into the farmlands of both Minnesota and North Dakota, it appeared to us that more and more farmland is being drained into legal ditches that are being enlarged to accommodate farmland runoff. Given the prices of crops, who can blame the farmer for seeking to increase his production? But there is a price to pay, and that is an increase in the flows of the Red River. If we don't have protection around our communities we will see more flooding taking place.

As for Fargo, I have attached a historic record of flood events for our community. You can see how the most recent floods have been compared against the 1997 flood that brought over 39 feet to the Red River flood stage through Fargo. Our normal flood stage is 18 feet; right now the river's running about 15 feet, so you understand that it's a significant raise.

Also attached are pictures of flooding water south of Fargo during 1997. At one time during this flood I flew upstream reaches of the Red River and the Wild Rice River which joined the Red about six miles south of Fargo. During these aerial flyovers we saw water coming at Fargo that was eight miles wide and 10 to 12 miles long. All of the water had to flow through Fargo-Moorhead on its way north.

Imagine an hourglass and imagine how water flowing at five miles an hour at a rate of 28,000 cubic feet per second must move through a community for 14 miles before it reaches the north side of Fargo. Normally the river flows at three miles an hour at a rate of about 2,000 cubic feet per second or less.

We have addressed a number of flood-prone areas since 1997. We have purchased over 100 homes that were located in the area that was flooded at 31 feet above flood stage. We have improved, relocated and added pumping stations for our sanitary and storm sewers. But it should also be noted while we must protect property from river flooding, we must also be aware of flooding during a rain event, whereby the community can be flooded from the inside of the dikes if the pumping system doesn't work.

We are growing into rural areas in the south side of Fargo that requires additional levee protection. One of the major revelations during the 1997 flood was the overland flooding that took place. So now we need to not only protect the community from Red River breakouts, but we must protect our property from overland flooding that occurs when the water breaks out from lesser streams like the Wild Rice.

And finally, while all this protection is being planned we must also assure our citizens that the pumps work in case we have a major rain or snowstorm during high water. In closing, first of all, I want to thank the committee for listening, remind everyone that a lot of work has gone into protecting our communities and properties of the Red River.

If you drive north into Canada, you will see that every community from the border to Winnipeg is protected by rain dikes. After the 1997, Fargo committed to allowing other communities that suffered more damage to proceed in finding a flood protection plan to assist them. They are now protected. The Corps of Engineers did a wonderful job in Grand Forks, just an absolute wonderful job.

The figures that's being used for the '97 flood was $2 billion. These figures would be exceeded if we would have lost Fargo. And I can remember our governor at that time asking me the simple question, he said we couldn't afford to lose both towns because we served as a basis for providing aid and assistance to Grand Forks after the '97 flood.

We think it is our turn to receive assistance, and we are willing and more than willing to work with anybody that could move our south side flood protection. The dike up by the VA hospital and that area is proceeding; it should be completed this summer, this spring. They are doing a study on the rest of the city. We know it's not even with our south side flood protection, the projects do not end before we receive what we consider adequate protection from the raging river. Thank you.

SEN. DORGAN: Mayor, thank you very much. You know, the issue of flood threats in some areas might be responded to differently than in our area. After the '97 flood, you know, apparently a 500-year flood or perhaps even more, and to see essentially the largest city evacuated since the Civil War, and to see that the fight that went on in Fargo to try to make sure you saved the city of Fargo, I think all of us understand the urgency and the tension whenever we hear again a flood threat, especially when you talk about major flood threat. And so this is not just some ordinary response in our part of the country; we understand the need to respond aggressively to just the threat and that's the reason for this hearing.

Mayor Bott, you have, as I indicated, been the recipient of a lake flood that came and stayed and now appears, by all accounts, to be moving towards new record levels of flooding which will have a substantial impact on much of your infrastructure: levees, roads, the economy and all the things that are impacted by this flooding. So we appreciate your coming today, and why don't you proceed?

MAYOR BOTT: Good morning, Senator Dorgan. Thank you for giving me the opportunity to speak to you today concerning these challenges facing our community and the implications with the rising water levels. I would have to echo what Mayor Walaker said, when you're living in a community where flooding is likely and seems like it's on the horizon, you certainly need to be optimistic that you're going to be able to deal with this.

I would like to thank you for the ongoing support you've provided to our community throughout those years of flooding. The dike protecting the city, the roads leading to our community and the development of our new drinking water supply would not have been possible without your unrelenting support.

I'd like to discuss three items of the multiple challenges facing the city of Devils Lake, the importance of the city within the region, our water supply project and then the levee system.

Devils Lake is the 11th largest city in North Dakota. The 2000 census placed our population at 7,222 residents. We have a regional airport that last year had 3,226 departures.

Five miles south of Devils Lake is the Spirit Lake Nation, which is home to approximately 6,500 people. Spirit Lake relies almost entirely on the city of Devils Lake for its retail needs. Also just south of the city is Camp Grafton, a National Guard training facility which employs 220 people year-round. Camp Grafton is in the process of implementing tens of millions of dollars' worth of improvements and relies heavily on the local airport for transportation of students. Last year alone Camp Grafton trained nearly 3,200 regular Army and Reserve component soldiers. With the closest regional center being 90 miles away, the city of Devils Lake plays a vital role in the local economy.

The drinking water supply project: We are proceeding with the development of our emergency water source replacement project. This project was initiated several years ago to address the precarious situation created by the lake inundating six miles of our existing supply line. A failure within the inundated portion of the pipeline would leave the city without adequate drinking water.

In 2007 the city completed installation of 32 and a half miles of pipeline to connect the city to our new water source. Work on our well field has been ongoing since last fall; we hope to be able to supply water from the new source to the city residents by the end of March this year.

The city is currently working on the design of a water treatment facility with hopes of awarding bids for construction this summer. The total water supply project is expected to cost nearly $18 million.

With your help, Senator, the city has secured nearly $7.5 million in federal grants, including ($)5.9 million from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and ($)1.6 million from the EPA. The city has also secured nearly ($)4.5 million in grant funds from the North Dakota State Water Commission. And the levee project, my personal file labeled Corps and Dike Projects has a beginning date of February 17th, 1994. The lake elevation at that time was 1,428 feet. The first document in that file on that date is a copy of a letter sent by Senator Byron Dorgan to Colonel James D. Scott, district engineer, St. Paul district. The letter concerned potential spring flooding. The second document within the file is dated March 3rd, 1994 and is in reply to Senator Dorgan from the division engineer Omaha district concerning spring flooding.

Other documents within the file include the city's letter to then-Governor Schafer asking him to secure assistance from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to raise and extend the existing protection levee for the city of Devils Lake, dated June 21st, 1996. Our hope was that this would be our only request. We never expected that nearly 13 years later we would be making yet another request to protect the city from the flood emergency caused by the waters of Devils Lake.

It appears that there is significant chance the lake will experience a dramatic rise this spring. This is of great concern to the city because the existing levee with a top elevation of 1,460 is already near the fringe for meeting core dam safety criteria and FEMA flood plain regulations. Increasing lake levels will exacerbate this problem and ultimately require additional protection measures to be implemented.

Approximately $54 million has been invested in the levee system protecting our area. Preliminary estimates for future levee work range in excess of $73 million for a five-foot raise. This amount will make it extremely difficult to fund at a local level.

Again, Senator Dorgan, thank you for the opportunity to speak today. We appreciate that you continue to understand the challenges that lie ahead of us, and we hope we are able to work together to find workable solutions. Thank you, Senator.

SEN. DORGAN: Mayor Bott, thank you very much. Time flies, I guess, but I was just thinking that's 15 years ago that represents the letter that you found in your files that I sent to the court.

So this is, as I indicated at the start of it, this has been lake flooding that is chronic, comes and stays and now apparently is set to substantially increase.

The North Dakota state water engineer Dale Frink -- Mr. Frink, please proceed.

MR. FRINK: Okay. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and thank you for the opportunity to discuss both Devils Lake and hear some more about the Red River Valley flooding. For those that are following my testimony, I am going to skip a couple paragraphs now and then.

The National Weather Service's 50 percent forecast is for a four- foot increase in Devils Lake in 2009. If this occurs, widespread damages will occur around the lake. Devils Lake currently has a surface area of 140,000 acres, an increase of 86,000 acres since 1993. If the lake rises four feet, another 33,000 acres will be lost and many of the 33,000 acres are prime farmland.

Since 1993 approximately ($)500 million has been spent raising roads, sometimes several times, relocating roads, moving homes and buildings, building dikes, especially around the city of Devils Lake, and relocating and modifying water and sewer systems. This does not include the (abandoned ?) infrastructure and the value of the flooded farmlands.

A pricing concern with the levee that Mayor Bott just talked about -- the levee system that now protects the city of Devils Lake. The city of Devils Lake and the Army Corps of Engineers are present today and address this in a little more detail, but there are a couple of points that I do want to talk about.

The cost of these various scenarios is in the -- from what I understand in the 72 to 100 million-dollar range. A major concern is how the cost of this recommended project will be shared.

The current dike was built with a 75/25 cost share by the Corps of Engineers. In addition, the project will have significant annual operation and maintenance costs. Due to the terrible economic impact in the last 15 years, the city of Devils Lake and the region has very limited ability to cost-share.

Another range of concern is Camp Grafton. Camp Grafton used to be considered a North Dakota Army National Guard training site, but it has become a national military training center. The Camp Grafton training center employs over 200 personnel that support the North Dakota National Guard's rollers and operational force in the global war on terror.

The 164th engineer or the regional training institute is located on this installation, and this institute trains over 3,100 reserve and active-component soldiers annually in the engineering military skill sets. The training center has over $193 million worth of infrastructure and provides an annual economic impact to the region of $17 million.

Camp Grafton is literally surrounded by Devils Lake and has lost considerable acreage to the lake. Highway 2057 provides the main access to the training site, and efforts are under way to rebuild the Acorn Ridge portion of this road to act as a dam. This alternative was found to be the most cost-effective option for this portion of the project.

The current project has only enough funds to rebuild the road to current elevation of 1,455, and based on the Weather Service projected lake level, additional federal funds should be allocated to this project because they will get in trouble at anything above that level.

Major expenditures will be required to raise roadways if the lake levels continue to rise. It is estimated to cost about $279 million to raise all state highways impacted by the rising water to elevation 1,465. This does not include the cost to raise county and BIA roads that will also be impacted. In addition, it's estimated to cost about $67 million to raise railroad grades to 1,465, and this is provided by North Dakota DOT.

I'll skip the next paragraph.

The flood in Devils Lake is far different from the flooding that occurs near rivers that will rise and fall to normal levels. When a home or business is flooded by Devils Lake, the water does not recede. The structure is lost for good. It should be noted that properties several feet above the actual lake level are in jeopardy as a result of wave action, saturated ground and erosion.

Fifty years of flooding have taken a serious toll on Devils Lake, with some 600 structures being impacted, and 450 of these were homes. FEMA has engaged in the flood fight process by processing over 1,200 insurance claims amounting to $33 million. With the forecast of new record highs, FEMA and the local emergency managers are encouraging the (continued ?) the purchase of flood insurance.

FEMA has a significant presence with other programs. And I'll skip the next two paragraphs.

Communities adjacent to Devils Lake have all suffered greatly over the last 15 years. The city of Churchs Ferry was bought out by FEMA in 2000. The city of Minnewaukan, a small county seat lying on the western edge of Devils Lake, is now in jeopardy of the same fate.

U.S. Highway 281 used to go through their community. It now has been rerouted about a mile west to get around the lake. Lake water is lapping at Minnewaukan school and at many homes. The original city sewage lagoons were flooded and replaced in the early 1990s. The projected lake levels threatens their water and sewerage systems with the likelihood that manholes will be flooded this year. The corps has investigated the option of building levees to protect the town, but feasibility is a major issue. Clearly the city of Minnewaukan will have difficult decisions to make as the lake rises.

In addition to the larger problems, there are numerous smaller areas that are experiencing problems such as Stump Lake Park in Nelson County, boat ramps all around the lake campgrounds, and various lake cabin sites around the lake. Ground water levels continue to rise, which will create significant problems for any structure with a basement.

In closing I'd like to thank you for this hearing. I look forward to working with you on this important issue.

SEN. DORGAN: Mr. Frink, thank you very much.

Let me begin asking some questions about the Red River Valley, then I'm going to ask questions about Devils Lake, although Colonel, I think in your testimony and Mr. Dummer as well, you indicate that in many ways the two are joined in terms of the amount of moisture that has been piling up and the potential for flooding as a result of it.

Colonel Christensen, we had asked you to come and talk about Devils Lake. You did not mention the Red River Valley, but you and Mr. Dummer talked about -- Mr. Dummer, rather, talked about the Red River Valley some. I have the chart that Mayor Walaker brought that shows the flood events. The top red line shows the '97 event. There is a green line that shows the 2006 flood events. Those appear to me to be the largest flood and the third largest flood perhaps, if I'm reading this chart right.

Mr. Dummer, in terms of the Red River Valley and the water that has to move through our state via the Red River, what kind of expectations should those communities and the people who live there have as a comparison to some of the previous flooding? When you say major -- you used the term -- I believe the Weather Service used the term major flood threat. What does that mean? What's major mean? Is it a flood threat equivalent to the '96, the '87 -- or excuse me, the '97 or 2006 flood threat? What are you estimating when you say major flood threat?

MR. DUMMER: When we say major flood threat, those are different levels. We have the minor flood threat, moderate and major and what the National Weather Service does, we work with our local customers and partners, in this case for Fargo. We work with Fargo city officials and county officials to help them assess what level this should be set at.

When we typically say major flood threat, that's when it's getting major impacts on the city itself with the flood fight. Typically, I don't know the exact level that is at Fargo offhand right now, but when you get to a major flood level or major flooding, typically you can have buildings start to be inundated and more major roads become impassable due to high water.

SEN. DORGAN: I think, Mayor, the three most significant floods, if I read this graph correctly, would be 2006 -- well, the most significant, of course, is '97, then 2006 or 1969. Are those the three largest flood events in the Red River?

MAYOR WALAKER: In 100 years of record.

SEN. DORGAN: Right.

MAYOR WALAKER: There are some process in 1897 that were approximately the same level and so forth. What he's talking about is the flood levels. Basically flood stage is 18 feet above. Okay? At 31 feet we have to construct the dike to protect city hall. We have to put the earthen dike on Second Street from the railroad tracks down to First Avenue. Okay?

If it gets above 34, then we're talking about significant, every foot that the river goes up creates more and more investment. Now we have to make decisions sometime probably in February whether we're going to bring in the deep-water well pumps to protect our sanitary and our storm sewer. If it gets above 34 feet, you know, the $64,000 question -- (inaudible) -- story on television is where is it going to go, you know. And that's the big question and so forth.

These probabilities bring up the apprehension of the general public, but what people that are in the system want to know is where is it going to be? And there is too many variable factors at this time to determine that. But my concern is, you know, the pumps, the earthen dike on Second Street, those are the two immediate difficult decisions to make because they're very expensive.

SEN. DORGAN: So when the Weather Service describes a potential major flood threat, that is able to trigger certain decisions and actions by the city now?

MAYOR WALAKER: Yeah, absolutely. We're going to go ahead and so forth and we have people that are meeting on a two-week period and then that will probably go to a weekly period here shortly on what's going to be done. We've got a half-inch of rain there this weekend. The drains are different than in '97; they're open. We have two, three feet of water running the drains right now. All of that is good; all of that, you know, gets rid of some of the -- but, you know, it's not a simple process.

You know, the probability -- I was in Colorado when this came out of the federal offices in Boulder and they talked about this probability and so forth, and, you know, did that help us? You know, it's good for the public to make opportunities to be successful. They have to be aware of what could happen, you know. But what we need is more precise numbers, and we won't get those until the runoff starts and so forth.

No, are we concerned about the spring? Yes. Are we making preparations? Yes. The long term on this whole project as far as I'm concerned is that we need some assistance to proceed with protecting our entire city. Nothing would make me feel better if we could just sit in city hall and watch the river go by. I mean, that's the ultimate goal. And to get there, Wahpeton Breckenridge are in pretty good shape right now, and Grand Forks is in great shape, and all the cities north of the Canadian border are -- well, they lost one in '97 and they've improved all the holes on the south side of Winnipeg and so forth.

And if you haven't had a chance to go up there, it's amazing what they did after the -- they're not so concerned about the '97 flood. They're concerned about the 1826 and 1825 flood and so --

SEN. DORGAN: Colonel, can you give me your assessment of, particularly in our state, Wahpeton Breckenridge, Fargo-Moorhead, Grand Forks, East Grand and the others north? Give me your assessment of where we are with respect to the capability to move that water through in a major flooding event.

COL. CHRISTENSEN: Sir, I think a lot of that has been talked about by my contemporaries over here. We start with Grand Forks, East Grand Forks; we finished -- the significant portion of that project is now certified at the 100-year-level protection. So we feel good about that. We are working, continuing to work with Fargo and then -- (inaudible) -- efforts in the Fargo-Moorhead area and the -- (inaudible) -- area; if we get down to Breckenridge Wahpeton. The diversion channel at Breckenridge has been completed and we're continuing to work on the in-city levees there.

And we are scheduling flood coordination meetings with the local communities. We have them coming up in Fargo on the 25th of this month, making sure that our sandbags and pumps and everything are available and strategically located throughout the area. And we stand ready to assist in any way possible.

SEN. DORGAN: Mr. Frink, is that your assessment as well?

MR. FRINK: Yes, it is. And just a couple other thoughts on Fargo. Prior to 1997 I always considered Fargo to have a larger risk than Grand Forks. In 1997 I think there were a couple things that happened. The timing was very bad for Grand Forks; Fargo got a little bit lucky.

The other factor is that Fargo has gotten very good at building dikes, and part of it's practice. But long term, you're going to lose. And, you know, the corps has got a major study and I think at some point we need to get a permanent look into a project for them. It just has to happen. And I've been a state engineer for eight years and think I've seen a dike out in front of city hall maybe three times, four times. And you just -- we just need to move and get us something permanent for them.

For the current situation right now it is not as bad as it was in 1997, but that water, the upper -- the water shed south of Fargo is very, very wet. We're moving into that period we're going to get some very wet blizzards and they're clearly in jeopardy right now. And I know they're prepared to build dikes again, but at some point you need a permanent solution for them.

SEN. DORGAN: I think all of us agree that there needs to be that type of permanent solution. I think the mayor said it in his testimony. Following the '97 flood, I think the understanding was the more vulnerable portion of the valley was in Grand Forks and so well over $400 million was moved into that area. They now have first-rate protection, and Fargo, of course, has fought a valiant battle for a long, long time.

And I think you're right as well, all of us have seen these earthen dikes and seen the substantial activity when Fargo gets busy to make sure that they can protect the city, but I agree with the mayor and with you that ultimately there needs to be the kind of permanent protection that will not require them to build those earthen dikes outside of city hall and to be able to protect all of the city of Fargo.

Mr. Dummer, one of the things that you said that was interesting to me is you measure top soil and the amount of moisture in the top soil. You indicated that the eight inches of top soil in the entire region is largely soaked. Is that correct?

MR. DUMMER: Yes, that is correct. Really in the top eight inches it's almost solid water within there, so when we froze it almost became frozen -- instead of frozen soil it's almost frozen ice within that top eight inches, because there is so much moisture in that soil profile.

SEN. DORGAN: That means as the snow pack and other rains come with blizzards and so on, there's no place for that to soak into the soil. That's going to remain on top, isn't it?

MR. DUMMER: That's correct. It would be runoff.

SEN. DORGAN: And that contributes to your estimates of what is going to happen with respect to flooding.

MR. DUMMER: That's correct.

SEN. DORGAN: Let me talk about Devils Lake just for a few moments, because, you know, the projections in Devils Lake are more certain than your suggestions about Red River Valley and flooding on the Red River itself.

Your projections about Devils Lake are projections that lead us -- you know, you say 98 percent; certainty we're going to exceed the record level of Devils Lake and the mayor just described that we've been dealing with this for 15 years now, so that's a flood that comes and stays, doesn't leave. And we had several years of some tranquility there, but at least part of that, Mayor Bott, was because that lake ran off into Stump Lake, and so Stump Lake is now full. There's no place for it to go anymore towards that direction. Stump Lake is filled up and so whatever comes in from that basin into Devils Lake, that's just Devils Lake flooding as we look at the future.

But you're more certain about these predictions, and what you are saying is that there is a -- give me the 2 percent chance. And the reason I ask you for that is we have had in our experience with Devils Lake I think three or four years in which we've had the 1 and 2 percent chance actually realized, which, you know -- you think 2 percent, well, that's a pretty small percentage, but we've actually seen it in Devils Lake on several occasions.

MR. DUMMER: All right. Currently our predictions -- we're predicting the 2 percent chance that Devils Lake will reach 1,454 feet. That is one foot below what the Corps of Engineers has established as the level of protection.

SEN. DORGAN: Colonel, at 1,454 -- let's not always assume the worst, but for this discussion let me assume that we get to 1,453, 1,454. You have a dike that provides, or a levee that provides, protection at 1,455 plus five foot of freeboard. Tell me about your trigger levels and what your thinking is of how quickly you have to move if this lake would move to 1,454 in this year.

COL. CHRISTENSEN: Well, sir, that 2 percent is a low probability, but I understand what you're saying, that it is -- seems to be very highly likely, I mean, this area of the world. We have to essentially, you know, take two to three years at the beginning of -- to complete the project.

If we were to initiate it this fall, then I think if it gets up to the 2 percent prediction that we need to start, at latest, this fall, unless -- continue building.

SEN. DORGAN: What happens with dike protection if you're into the freeboard? In other words, you're above -- let's say you're at 1,456.

COL. CHRISTENSEN: (Inaudible) -- actually will overtop that levee and start eroding the levee from the other side, so there's danger.

SEN. DORGAN: What do you estimate the cost would be to take the levee system, the broad levee system that protects Devils Lake and related properties? I think you talked about taking to 1,465.

COL. CHRISTENSEN: Yes, sir.

SEN. DORGAN: What do you estimate the total cost of that to be?

COL. CHRISTENSEN: To take the levees to 1,465 would be about maybe 70 million to 105 million dollars.

SEN. DORGAN: So roughly $80 million?

COL. CHRISTENSEN: Seventy to 105 million (dollars).

SEN. DORGAN: I'm sorry, okay. Okay, 70 --

COL. CHRISTENSEN: To 105, depending on the alignments.

SEN. DORGAN: Seventy to 105 million. All right. Traditionally, what is the state-local share on that project?

COL. CHRISTENSEN: I believe on this project it was 75-25 for the previous -- and based upon the flood control and (coastal ?) emergency cost-sharing agreement.

SEN. DORGAN: And that would build the levees that currently protect the city of Devils Lake and related property in the surrounding area, but that is not anything that would protect, for example, the city of Minnewaukan, is that correct?

COL. CHRISTENSEN: That's correct, sir.

SEN. DORGAN: And other areas that I think Mr. Frink mentioned. That also, that -- let's assume that -- having had some small experience with the Corps of Engineers, let's assume the higher number for the moment, $100 million. (Laughter.) I chair the subcommittee in Congress that funds the Corps of Engineers, so I have a little bit of an acquaintance in -- I'm not suggesting anything by this, but you know and I know that what happens is these estimates are made and then the projects are several years out, and pretty soon they increase in cost.

A hundred million dollars for that levee portion -- you have a number of other areas that are not resolved, in Minnewaukan and so on, and then you have the very large area of the roads as dikes. And I think Mr. Frink mentioned some of that exists at Camp Grafton, a substantial amount exists with respect to the Indian reservation.

Does anyone have an estimate of what it would cost to go in -- and let's assume this lake goes to 1,453 -- pretty reasonable estimate that it might get to (1,4)52 or (1,45)3. We've got, at that point, to do a lot of work on an emergency basis on roads, to keep traffic moving and keep the economy working in the Devils Lake region. Are there any estimates about what the aggregate costs of dealing with those roads would be?

Mr. Frink, do you or anyone else have any information about that?

MR. FRINK: Senator Dorgan, I don't have the numbers with -- they do exist and we can get them. I was relying on Chairman Pearson to be here today. (Laughs.) But the cost of the roads are very, very significant on the reservation. The numbers in my testimony represent the -- off the reservations, primarily, so.

SEN. DORGAN: Do you know, is there a potential impact -- if we go to 1,452 or that level, is there a potential impact on the railroads? I mean, we had the problem with Amtrak and the freight railroads, given the line that was running east and west. I know you indicate in your testimony there was some cost, but will that have to rebuilt?

MR. FRINK: There's some real significant issues on the railroad. At Churchs Ferry, where the line comes in there, there's some concern that that would be abandoned and that the railroad be rerouted south. If that's the case then, you would -- Devils Lake would lose its rail service. And that's the main line from Seattle all the way to Minneapolis. So it's a pretty -- it would be a significant hit. The railroad could go south and avoid the cost of trying to raise that rail line to 1,465. So that's a significant issue for the region up there.

SEN. DORGAN: Mayor, I assume you all have talked about that some in your --

MAYOR BOTT: Right. The concern would be, as Mr. Frink said, that it would go south; it would go what's referred to as the Surrey route and that portion -- whatever they need you to do as far as moving grain into Devils Lake, they could come that far and then they could back up. And there is a concern about them doing that if they need to raise the route, and then of course the Amtrak service would be rerouted through that Surrey route; it wouldn't go through Devils Lake, and I don't know that it would go through Grand Forks then either, but I'm not sure, though.

SEN. DORGAN: So tell me, if you can, what specific preparations are under way now by the cities and the state and also the corps in terms of activities -- I mean, you have an outline, I assume, and here we are getting close to mid-February, and this -- you know, this plays out over a period of the next four months or so and then is -- the threat is largely over after the four months.

So what kind of things -- if you'll remind us, Colonel Christensen, what kinds of things is the corps involved in right now in both areas, in terms of the planning process and potential execution of assistance that would be needed both in Red River Valley flooding and also Devils Lake?

COL. CHRISTENSEN: Well, sir, as I mentioned before in the preparation piece, we do have a flood coordination meeting set up on the 25th of February with federal, state and local entities in Fargo to figure out the way ahead and how we're going to attack the potential flooding in Fargo.

We also had a similar meeting on 11 December with the city officials in Devils Lake and federal, state and local officials to figure out how we're going to deal with the flood, any potential flooding, in the Devils Lake area. We've had numerous public meetings in Devils Lake this past year to figure out what the best alignments are. We haven't reached a final decision on what those optimal alignments are; we're still working with the city on that. However, we can begin construction because a lot of the potential future levee system will be on the current alignment, as it is with tiebacks a little bit later. So we are prepared to accelerate to desired process and we believe we can be ready for construction this fall.

SEN. DORGAN: Can you tell us, if -- assuming you do all that is necessary to be done within your power to assist the Devils Lake region, for example, what areas would remain vulnerable?

COL. CHRISTENSEN: You mentioned -- there's already a levee surge in Spirit Lake Nation. We have concerns on several levees, the temporary emergency levees we put in awhile back. The Federal Highway Administration is working with the Spirit Lake Nation to build the roads back to those water barriers. Construction is supposed to begin this spring. The question is whether they can stay ahead of the rising water. There's also concerns at Minnewaukan, with the sanitary system that they have there and some of the residents in the low-lying areas. There's concerns that -- depending on where that alignment is chosen in Creel township; there's concerns in Stump Lake Park, as mentioned before, and there's concerns at Camp Grafton.

SEN. DORGAN: Colonel, would you be willing to give me a white paper on that so that we have some understanding of what lays outside of what the protective actions might be, so that we can pay some particular attention to that as well?

COL. CHRISTENSEN: Certainly, sir.

SEN. DORGAN: And Mr. Dummer, how periodic will your new forecast be as we lead up to this potential spring event? When do you expect to continue to evaluate and issue additional guidance?

MR. DUMMER: Typically, what we have with our long-term outlooks is they're issued once a month, towards the end of the month, so the end of this February, last week of February -- so, roughly about two weeks for our long-term outlooks. Things change significantly. I mean, we get a tremendous amount of snow in that area. We can always do an analysis on short order upon request. And then, like I mentioned in my testimony, when the runoff starts occurring in the spring and rivers and lakes start rising, then we'll transition into a daily operation and provide a daily forecast.

SEN. DORGAN: If it snowed 23 days in one month, I think as you indicated in December -- is that correct?

MR. DUMMER: That's correct.

SEN. DORGAN: I mean, the tourism department wouldn't want us to advertise that, necessarily, but if it snowed 23 days in one month, in December, would that predict anything about an extraordinarily snowfall in the following spring? In other words, are we in a season or a time of excessive moisture?

MR. DUMMER: Currently, our models, they take into account all the range of possibilities. This -- of course, December was a very stormy month. We did break, as I mentioned, many records on that. And if that were to occur again, we believe -- later on in the next couple months, we believe our predictions reflect that with the varying probabilities.

SEN. DORGAN: And Mayor Walaker, because you've been through this many times, the -- I would understand that when a forecast comes out that says, "Uh oh, we might have some trouble here, we might set ourselves up for a flooding event," the last thing you want is for anybody to be panicked about it. The issues -- you want people to be aware of it and then have to have enough information for the folks in the city to begin making preparations, working with the corps and all the things that you do. Is that a fair assessment of how a mayor would do this?

MAYOR WALAKER: (Laughs.) 1997, early in January -- I've always had a close relationship with the people in Chanhassen. I've always had a close relationship with the people in the National Weather Service forecast group up in Grand Forks. Early in January of 1997, we were given this: We have a prediction that we think that we may exceed floods of record. So that's when we ordered our first -- (inaudible) -- and so forth. If the river is not going to go over 31 feet, we don't, so forth. So, you know, we paid very close attention. But we have their phone number and so forth, and we also have a book of operations and triggers and so forth as to what's happening.

We used to have five to seven days prior to anything happening, where we could start constructing the dike on Second Street. Things have changed a little bit. There seems to be more and more a process of expediency as far as the river is concerned. It seems like it's coming at us faster. Is it because we're getting older? (Laughs.) I hope not. But as far as -- we take it very, very carefully as far as, you know, the boy with the finger in the dike and all that stuff -- trying to put out good information. And we have done that, based on the best information we can put together. And that's what we'll continue to do. We will continue to monitor this very, very closely. Our people are going to be meeting with -- like I said, we're going to change the frequency; that's going to come up sooner.

But, I mean, the long term of this is to understand very simply that we need to do something long term, okay? We need to start the planning. We need to work with the Corps of Engineers to not only take care of everything south of Fargo but to start working on a plan with both Moorhead and the city of Fargo on the north side. I mean, that's the ultimate goal.

Our city engineer, Mark Bittner, is -- we have done more improvements to the city of Fargo since 1997 than we did in the previous 20 years. And we did something every year, and so forth. So we have a very good area engineer from the Corps of Engineers whose office is in Fargo. I mean, he's the area engineer. He's the guy that gets his boots on and so forth and deals directly with the colonel. And they have some emergency funding, and we can start -- we have to provide the (option to fill ?) and so forth, but they can start that if they see an ominous threat and so forth.

So are we prepared? I would say yes. Am I optimistic? I would say yes. But what you're talking about is something that could happen. And we don't want that to happen, by any stretch of the imagination. And we want to continue on, you know. We want to see our south side flood protection start to move a little faster. We would love to see that in place. And the downtown area -- they're doing a study on the downtown which is including the north side, a whole comprehensive plan of the flood. We have removed all of our temporary dikes. The city of East Grand Forks used to say, the mayor used to say, we need another flood, we need to raise our dikes. (Laughs.) So they would build temporary dikes. Well, that's not the answer because they get very soft. If they're not engineered, they get very soft. So what you need is permanent flood protection and so forth. They stand up much, much better than temporary measures and so forth. So we got rid of those. We're getting rid of the last one here, shortly. And we'll get rid of the one that protects the hospital on the south side; that was done after '97.

So, you know, things are -- I can't give you 100 percent assurance, but I'm confident that we will be successful in 2009. But I can't speak for 2010 and 2011. Just like Mr. Frink said, sooner or later, we're going to go back to 1826, and we're going to have an event no matter what we do. We can't stop and be protected.

What we've been doing and concentrating in the last few years on is giving everybody an opportunity to be successful, everybody in the same place. We had an awful lot of homes that were built in Fargo were built prior to any flood-plain administration. We've removed the majority of those. We don't have any walk-out basements anymore, along the Red River and so forth. No matter how wonderful they were to the occupants, they're all gone, and so forth. So we are better today than we were; we would like to be a lot better in the future.

SEN. DORGAN: And you have a first-rate staff that's been around in Fargo for a long, long time that has --

MAYOR WALAKER: Well, we're changing, I mean, as we all get a little older. I mean, we have new staff, but we still have some of the people who have been there through the fights.

SEN. DORGAN: But you have a couple behind you there that have been --

MAYOR WALAKER: Yes, absolutely.

SEN. DORGAN: And let me just say as well that because I chair the appropriations panel that funds the Corps of Engineers, when we get a comprehensive plan -- flood protection for Fargo, permanent flood protection, I'm very anxious to work with you and the city of Moorhead and to proceed to get it done. So I agree with you that that is a necessary project in our future.

MAYOR WALAKER: Thank you.

SEN. DORGAN: Mayor Bott, the same question, I guess -- and there's a slight difference here in the sense that at least we believe, based on what the Weather Service says, we're going to see record levels in Devils Lake. That's not the case with the Red River Valley. There's a prospect of perhaps major flooding, maybe not. In Devils Lake we know now that there's an overwhelming opportunity or overwhelming chance that we're going to see record levels and -- probably up into the 1,450s. And so, you know as mayor, and I think Mr. Frink and others know, that we have to begin working with the corps to address the permanent structures that we have to change. Tell me the financial situation in your city because your city has been involved in flood fights now for a long while that has required the participation of the city and the state for certain matches.

What's the financial condition of your city?

MAYOR BOTT: Well, the (attention ?) Senator, for the city -- the first time the dike was raised back in the mid '90s, the state of North Dakota and the city of Devils Lake split the local match. And then after that, we informed the state that we just couldn't provide any more local funding. This time we are looking at providing some local funding. We redirect some resources, at least with the initial work that may be done with the levee, but again the amount of funding that we have available is limited. But we feel that, you know, we can't rely on someone doing the 100 percent that we need to do as much as we can, and we're just going to have to make decisions that infrastructure work, for example, that could be done within the city is probably going to have to be put on hold, and people aren't going to appreciate that. But we're going to do what we can financially.

We're also -- different this time from the original dike-raise, we're working with the county and the township, our rural utilities and the basin board because all of the additional work that will be done will be literally outside the reach of the city of Devils Lake; it will be outside of our two-mile extraterritorial. So we felt we needed to work with these entities who have some control and some presence in those areas because they're far beyond our reach, so we're working with them. But that doesn't negate the point, we are the local sponsor. It is the community's responsibility to come up with that local match and that's what we're working on -- local and federal match, I should say.

SEN. DORGAN: I should say that you two have some really great help in the city that's had a lot of experience now for a long while in addressing these issues, and I -- Myra Pearson, the chairwoman of the Spirit Lake Nation, was not able to be here because of travel difficulties today, but they at Spirit Lake Nation face really significant challenges, as you know. I mean, they, because of the road issues, can be completely cut off from the normal commerce in Devils Lake. I don't know whether it was Mr. Frink or someone who described -- maybe it was you, Mayor Bott -- the amount of commerce that the Spirit Lake Nation relies on by going to Devils Lake. And if that's cut off because they don't have access because of flooding that inundates these roads, that's a very serious problem for an economy on the reservation that is very fragile in any event.

So all of us, even though Myra Pearson, the chairwoman, couldn't be here, all of us need to reach out and do all that we can to work with Spirit Lake Nation. This is very important to them. It's important to the city of Devils Lake, just as important to the Spirit Lake Nation, and we need to work very closely with them and the chairwoman and the tribal council.

Mr. Frink, whenever we pass the Economic Recovery Act, presuming we do, and I think we will, it will include, likely, 4.4 to 4.6 billion dollars for the Corps of Engineers; it'll include probably ($)1 billion, slightly more, for the Bureau of Reclamation; it'll includes some water money. But you're the only one that shows up at this table with a lot of money. You know, the state has a very significant surplus. I know the state legislature's working through that at the moment. Tell me the position that you feel like you're in to be able to also from the state standpoint address some of these needs. I know that you've already done some and will continue to do more, but our state is blessed in many ways of not having the kind of huge budget deficits that Minnesota or California and so many others have. I know that you're -- the state legislature is now meeting. Can you describe to me what you think might happen with respect to funding for water projects that you have to be involved in, especially now flood fights as well?

MR. FRINK: Senator Dorgan, you are right. North Dakota is in better shape than most other states. We -- however, you know, when you have a national economy like this, North Dakota cannot remain an island. It does have impacts. We're seeing layoffs. And so there will be, certainly, impacts. An important part of the water -- of the State Water Commission budget includes a certain amount of money, you know, from our resources trust fund, and that's the money that goes to support water projects statewide.

It's all dependent on oil revenues, and oil revenues are very low and dropping. And so that makes -- you know, that amount of money -- it started out in November that the amount of money available was about $100 million for state projects that we could cost-share. That is down now to 70 (million dollars). And if you -- if the oil prices stay where they are, that could actually drop down to 30 or 40 million (dollars). And so that's all that would be available. And if you look at what -- the water projects that we have on, you know, on the front burner, you've got Devils Lake, you've got the Fargo south flood control project, you've got -- (inaudible) -- southwest -- that 20 or 30 (million dollars) is going to get spread very, very thin.

SEN. DORGAN: I might -- you know, I don't whether you have an emergency pot of money, but it might be that given what we have heard recently now, potential major flooding on the Red and almost certain flooding above highest levels at Devils Lake, you might want to at least go back to the legislature. I'll talk to Governor Hoeven about this as well, but it might be useful to put together a small emergency fund of some type, or perhaps not so small, to be available. I mean, the federal government is obviously going to have to come in with the corps and other agencies, but I know the state will want to do that too. I'll visit with Governor Hoeven about that and I appreciate the work that the state has done. I mean, it's always -- it has always been, I think the two mayors know, it's always been a team fight. I mean, the major fight's back home, of course, with the mayors walking the dikes and so on. But the federal government, state government and the cities and the Corps of Engineers and the weather service -- all the federal agencies have to be involved, and I have been very actively involved.

I say that only because our history is a history unlike most other parts of the country. I mean, the fact is we have the only lake flooding in the United States that has been pretty devastating to a region, and we've spent a lot of money, hundreds and hundreds and millions of dollars, over the last 10, 12, 14 years to try to address that, and it's getting worse, not better, according to the predictions. And then we're the state that had the '97 flood experience. It was an extraordinary, you know, the circumstance of an entire city being evacuated, largest since the Civil War. In the middle of an evacuation, a city that stood stark empty and a fire in the downtown portion of that city, and then with the city that's been evacuated, there's a fire consuming major city buildings. I mean, all of that -- the country remembers that as well because it was so nearly unbelievable. And so as a result of that, all of us want to be very careful as we take a look at estimates and be on the right side of preparedness to make certain that when things might happen that are going to cause us a repeat of some of the things we've seen in the past, that we want to be able to be prepared to fight it as completely and fully as we can.

I want to, as I close, especially thank the two mayors. And Mayor Walaker, I know you will pass my regards to the mayor of Wahpeton and the mayor of Grand Forks and the other communities on the Red River.

And to Colonel Christensen and the Corps of Engineers, thanks for your work.

And to the Weather Service, keep telling us what you think is going to happen and be as close as you can.

And to Dale Frink, thank you for the work that the Water Commission does, and please thank the governor for me as well.

MR. FRINK: Thank you.

SEN. DORGAN: Let me thank you for traveling to the hearing, and we will stay in close touch on this matter, and hopefully in four or five months we can have an informal visit and believe that we got through all of this and it was much less than we expected would happen. That would be the best of all news.

Anyone have anything else you wish to add before you leave?

MAYOR BOTT: Senator, I think I need to add something about the Corps of Engineers and how much we rely on them and how confident we are in them. I think there are many people in Devils Lake who thinks they're definitely in the division of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in Devils Lake because they're there so often. And a lot of the optimism and the confidence that we have is because we know we have the -- whatever support and whatever they need to do to help us, they're there to do that, so I do want to publicly thank them. They're always there.

SEN. DORGAN: Well, Colonel, are you glad you stayed long enough to hear that?

COL. CHRISTENSEN: I am, sir. I thank the mayor for those comments, and we feel the same way about Devils Lake and Fargo as well.

SEN. DORGAN: Well, the corps has many lives and many different extremities, and I have been in the past highly critical of the Corps of Engineers, extremely so, and on other occasions enormously positive, and especially in the area of flood fights. If you're going to suit up to go with somebody for a flood fight, you want the Corps of Engineers, because it's a terrific organization to have as a partner in fighting floods. So, Colonel Christensen, thank you.

This hearing's adjourned. (Sounds gavel.)

END.

Source