South Bend Tribune - Campaign Barnburner In The Making?

South Bend Tribune - Campaign Barnburner In The Making?

Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly appears to have a slight edge in his bid to upset Republican incumbent Chris Chocola for the 2nd District congressional seat, according to a districtwide poll taken on behalf of The Tribune and WSBT-TV.

The Friday-through-Sunday telephone poll interviewed 400 likely voters who were asked who they would vote for if the election were held now.

The result: Forty-six percent said they would vote for Donnelly, 41 percent said they would vote for Chocola and 13 percent said they were undecided, with a

plus-or-minus 5 percent margin for error.

Because of the margin for error, it is theoretically possible that the results could be reversed, with 46 percent favoring Chocola and 41 percent favoring Donnelly, according to pollster Delair Ali, of Research 2000, Rockville, Md.Ali said the poll could be saying that Donnelly is ahead by a 51 to 36 point margin, or by a 51 to 41 margin, but he doesn't think that either of those possibilities is the case.

"I don't think that Chocola is higher than 45 points or lower than 40 points," Ali said.

He also thinks it unlikely that Donnelly is any higher than 48 or 49 points at this stage of the campaign because, "he hasn't quite made the sale."

Because undecideds tend to break against the incumbent, Ali predicted that more than half of the undecideds will end up favoring Donnelly.

The new poll compares to an earlier poll commissioned by the Donnelly campaign that, according to Donnelly, showed the challenger with a 48 percent to 38 percent lead over the incumbent.Determining what The Tribune-WSBT-TV poll is actually saying "is why you deal with questions other than the horse race," said Ali, whose interpretation of the rest of the poll is that it favors Donnelly over the incumbent.

"He's in deep and serious trouble," Ali said of Chocola. "The good news for him is the election is in November."

Ali predicted that a nasty race is in the offing because Chocola needs to raise Donnelly's negatives.

To do that, Ali said, Chocola must go on the attack against Donnelly.

Ali, an experienced pollster, said the fact that Chocola's unfavorability rating of 44 percent is basically as high as his 45 percent favorability rating, compared to Donnelly's favorable-unfavorable ratings of 43 percent to 31 percent, indicate that Donnelly may well be 5 points ahead in the race.By combining the excellent/good and fair/poor categories in Chocola's job performance rating, the 47 percent rating in each "is mixed at best," Ali said.

The pollster also looked at the question that asked those polled if they would prefer to see more Democrats or more Republicans elected. The response: 49 percent wanted more Democrats, while 41 percent wanted more Republicans.

That 41 percent figure, Ali noted, matches up with the 41 percent figure for Chocola in the head-to-head race.

Ali said he believes that most of the 17 percent who chose the war in Iraq as the most important issue are against what is going on in that conflict, a finding that favors Donnelly.

The fact that 10 percent rated taxes/spending and 9 percent the war on terror as top issues favors Chocola, Ali said.He said he was also surprised at the number of people who brought up the Toll Road (7 percent) and time zone change (5 percent) as campaign issues.

"To me, it sounds like people are ticked off at Republicans in general," Ali said.

The pollster predicted that if the weights given issues identified in the poll remain unchanged, Donnelly will win.

"My guess, this will tighten up," Ali said. Should the war on terror and taxes/spending become the top issues, it would help Chocola "and he probably pulls it out," Ali added.

"I'm pleased with the poll results," Donnelly said in a Monday statement."It's clear to me that voters want change and they understand that when Chris Chocola goes to Washington, he goes to defend his party's interests and the special interests," Donnelly said.

"Folks know that when I'm elected to Congress, I'll be an advocate for the needs and priorities of this district and will work to change the direction of the country," the Granger Democrat added.

Chocola said in a Monday interview that he believes the poll is a reflection of the "landscape" more than it is a reflection of the candidates.

The Bristol Republican said he feels voters do not have a clear understanding of the differences between himself and Donnelly.

They also don't have a clear understanding of who Donnelly is, Chocola said, promising, "They will on Election Day.""I think polls aren't reality," Chocola said, noting that polls only represent information at a particular point in time.

"You have to be afraid of losing for polls to scare you," Chocola said. "I'm not a career politician kind of guy. I let principles guide me."

Chocola said he is actually pleased with the poll results, given, he said, that there have been several hundred thousand dollars spent by "third parties running false and misleading ads" against him.

There have also been "51 that we know of" telephone call campaigns "telling people negative things about me," Chocola said.

"For me to be where I am, given all that, isn't so bad," Chocola said."We'll set the record straight by Election Day. People will know the difference between the two of us," Chocola said. "I think we'll be OK."

http://www.donnellyforuscongress.com/index.php?id=13,76,0,0,1,0