A New Compact for Iraq--Part II

A New Compact for Iraq--Part II

MODERATOR: Thank you, Senator, for that very substantive and sobering message. I think it's fair to say, as you pointed out, that if you go back and look at Senator Biden's remarks here, when he last spoke on Iraq, that many of these very important messages that he gave us today were very much in his mind at that time.

And I think that there's a lot of wisdom that goes with them, both then and now.

We have time for a few questions from the audience.

QUESTION: Senator, you mentioned you're against a timetable because the insurgents will, quote, "wait us out." The White House has said something similar, that the insurgents would lie low until we leave.

But wouldn't the insurgents lying low buy time for us, let's say a year, to train the Iraqi security forces? Wouldn't it convince anti-Americans in Iraq that we're not going to occupy there forever and not put in a puppet government?

Wouldn't this also build support among the American public that we have an exit strategy? And finally, wouldn't this convince the Iraqis that it's ultimately going to be their responsibility?

BIDEN: Yes, if in fact we said we were leaving, but really didn't mean it.

If we were really going to stay -- I mean, the idea of setting a timetable to leave generally means that you have to set in train the process of leaving. It is not an easy process.

And I think once that is smelled as the option, then I think you find it will degenerate quickly into sectarian violence, every man for himself, and the conclusion that will be achieved will be, I think, a Lebanon in 1985. And God knows where it goes from there.

I think my attempt -- my prescription was an attempt to achieve that same result, and that is, to make it clear to the Iraqi people, to make it clear to the American people what our goals are, what it is that we in fact seek, which is not permanent basing, it is not their oil -- I think we've demonstrated that -- and at the same time put in place a process where we enable the Iraqis, through help from the outside, not just us, to make the difficult decisions they have to make and train up the capacity to be able to govern themselves.

QUESTION: Thank you. Senator, in his pen and pad briefing this morning, House Majority Leader DeLay said, regarding Iraq, that, "The strategy is working. It's an incredibly fast schedule. Nobody gives anyone any credit. The quality of life and the economy is improving every day."

And he went on to say that, "Everyone that comes back from Iraq is amazed at the difference they see on the ground and they see on their TV sets."

Could you address why the House majority leader would have such a different view of what's going on in Iraq from you?

BIDEN: No.

QUESTION: Thank you.

QUESTION: Senator, do you think that a recess appointment by the president would be a statement by the president of a lack of respect for the U.N. or diminish the importance of the U.N., in light of what happened yesterday?

BIDEN: I'm not going to comment on that.

QUESTION: You said at the outset that no one's running against George Bush. It wasn't long ago that somebody did run against George Bush and made -- certainly not all the points that you made -- but made many of these same points.

Your colleague, John Kerry, lost the election. What makes you think that six months later, after the election, the American people are ready to engage in any different way?

QUESTION: And what makes you think the administration is willing to change course, after they won that election?

BIDEN: Reality. Reality. The fact is, look at the poll numbers. Before, when that race was on, a clear majority of the American people thought being in Iraq made them safer. Now 52 percent say it doesn't make them safer. Before, you still have a significant majority of the American people saying that things were working in Iraq and we should stay in Iraq. It was the right decision; now you have a clear majority of the American people saying get all or most of the troops out of Iraq, and do it immediately.

Look, it's amazing what -- I'm not being a wiseguy when I say this -- it's amazing when reality sinks in. What John Kerry talked about is turning out to be true.

I actually had on the ground with my staff -- and I wasn't the only one, by the way. There were three very conservative Republicans. I actually went into Iraq as the guest of a House delegation with three very conservative Republican colleagues of mine from the House. They all agreed with what I had to say.

I came out, did one of the major talk shows that Sunday from wherever I was, Chad or someplace, and they went and the press asked the logical question -- they went to these Republicans, said do you disagree? They said no, we don't disagree.

And so, my point I'm trying to make is the reality of what John talked about -- I even hate to put it in those terms, because now it makes it more political -- but the reality is it turned out to be true. We actually had several military people suggest to us that they were worried that not only were these jihadists coming across the border with more lethal capability, more sophistication, but they were training people in Iraq and sending them back out across the border to other parts of the region.

None of that was happening before.

And the American people are pretty smart. They know what's happening. And so I think they want the president to say, "Mr. President, look, give us a plan or get out. Give us a plan or get out."

And we should give them a plan, not get out.

QUESTION: Sorry, my foot's broke, I can't stand.

BIDEN: ... no one else does.

I'm from Delaware.

QUESTION: In your prepared remarks you said, in your judgment, we're at least two years away from a fully capable Iraqi army. You didn't say that out loud.

What I'm wondering is just if you could clarify: Does that mean, timetables aside, that you don't think we've got any business getting out of there for the next two years?

And real quickly, second of all, could you address how important you think the specter of Iraq will be in the next presidential election here?

BIDEN: I don't know about the second question, but the first question I can answer for you; it's a fair question. The second's fair, too, I just don't know enough about the second question.

I believe that there is, if all goes well -- and, by the way, you can't just be training Iraqi troops; you've got to be distributing this reconstruction money at the same time; you've got to get other nations invested in this more than they are now; and you've got to get the Sunnis more into the game.

So it's not just training Iraqi troops, because you're not going to be able to train them up fully and you're not going to have any Sunnis in this army in training them up if you don't do these other pieces as well.

But, merely on the training front, it is possible, I believe, within a year, to have a sufficient number of Iraqis being able to take on significantly more responsibilities, maybe including some of the major cities, freeing up American forces to move to the border or even, theoretically, bring some American forces home.

But to get to the point where you're able to say the Iraqis now have the capacity, without the United States' presence there in any numbers, you have to have two things happen: There has to be a political solution -- that is, you actually wrote a constitution, you actually had an election -- and there has to be somewhere in excess of 100,000 Iraqis trained, including, essentially, a paramilitary police force along with -- because the criminal element is a problem all by itself, just to keep the streets safe.

And so that will take -- that training piece will take -- at least a year. I think two years. It doesn't mean things can't and won't get better for America and American troops, some of whom will be able to come home short of that.

But I can't imagine it being less than two years, if all goes well, before we essentially can say we're out of Iraq.

QUESTION: Thank you, Senator. A couple of questions: Your remarks seem to imply an insufficiency of U.S. troops in Iraq, a need for NATO troops. Irrespective of political support in the United States, do you think the circumstances on the ground in Iraq call for a buildup or an increase in U.S. troops?

And secondly, you mentioned a meeting with National Security Adviser Hadley. The president said yesterday he's consulting with his generals. He meets with al-Jaafari on Friday and gives a speech next week.

What kind of pivot or reassessment do you see the president going through at this point, and how would you gauge the outcome in terms of what he offers? Will it be more rhetoric in your opinion? Or what would you look for in terms of a change on the ground?

BIDEN: I think the president is absolutely, totally sincere about trying to figure out a better way.

The president's a smart guy. The president knows, in my opinion, that the rhetoric of the vice president is for reasons other than reflecting what's happening on the ground. The president knows.

I am confident if he speaks to any of our generals on the ground, I'm confident if he speaks to the agency people on the ground, I'm confident that if he speaks to our diplomats -- look at the testimony of his new nominee who will be a good ambassador -- he was a great ambassador in Afghanistan. I almost wish he wasn't leaving there.

But he will do a great job in Iraq. Look at his testimony. His testimony reflects an awful lot of what I'm suggesting here.

So, therefore, I am assuming that when the president asked me to debrief Mr. Hadley on my trip -- he didn't ask me personally. I got a call from Hadley saying the president asked me -- and I believe he was sincere.

And one of the recommendations I made was that he should literally pick up the phone or meet with some of these generals, because I believe if he asks them, "Do you have enough forces?" they will tell him the truth. Every one of them told me they do not have enough forces.

Now look, there's a distinction between saying I don't have enough forces and more American forces. We don't have many more American forces to be able to deploy.

That's why we should leverage the help available to us and lead to get it.

When you all are there -- and you've been there -- ask any general coming home what you have to do to deal with a counterinsurgency -- to have a counterinsurgency.

You have to be able to seal the border. You have to be able to seal the border. We don't have enough forces to leave the city to seal the border -- 3,000 troops on the border goes three times as far, twice as far as 3,000 troops in the middle of Baghdad.

But we are trying to maximize the forces we have. I know that, in fact, a year ago I said this publicly and I'll say it again: Our military folks in NATO have a plan to be able to deploy 3,000 to 5,000 troops along the border.

And military experts I've met with -- two-, three- and four-star generals that I've kept pace with and had them come and brief me, both political parties -- well, they don't state any political party, but they worked in this administration and they're not declared Democrats to the best of my knowledge -- say that it can happen. We could seal the border with that size force -- which would radically act as a multiplier for what else we need.

So, yes, we didn't have enough force when we went in, we didn't have enough force going in, we didn't have enough force after we went in, we didn't have enough force a year ago and we don't have enough force now.

The problem is, we don't have the capacity now, in my view, to significantly increase the number of American forces. As I said, some of these folks are on their third rotation.

That's why we need outside help, and that's why we have to leverage the training, leverage the training of Iraqi forces.

QUESTION: Thank you, Senator. Given the history of this administration and its inability to admit mistakes that they had made -- this president and this administration -- how is it possible to bring them into this compact -- which is very commendable, I must say, to you, Senator -- to get them on board without having admitted mistakes that they have made.

BIDEN: Well, I mean this sincerely, and I say it before God and country here: I do not hold -- the president makes at changing course. I, for one, give you my word you will never hear me say anything other than: "Thank you, Mr. President; every war requires a course correction. You've made it. I compliment you for making it and I support you."

I believe the majority of the members of the House and Senate would do that.

I'm not looking for a mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa -- I'm not looking for anybody to say I'm sorry. No matter who was president running this war, it would have been difficult.

Who knows. Maybe the prescriptions that I've been suggesting for the past two and a half years, if we had done them, maybe they wouldn't have worked either.

But one thing we know for sure: What is happening now is not working sufficiently to put us in the position to meet our objective of a secure Iraq not a threat to its neighbors, each of the confessional groups believing they have a stake in the outcome of that government functioning and not a haven for terror.

BIDEN: We're not there. And we're not going to get there by staying the course.

I believe the president is a big man. I believe the president will do what he thinks is in the best interest of the country. I think when he examines the facts, when he examines what's actually happening by talking to these folks, I believe he'll be prepared to change, to alter, to augment his policy.

And it doesn't have to be the exact prescriptions I suggested, but I know one thing. You can't do it without buy-in of the Sunnis. You can't do it without the rest of the world playing a greater role in this. You can't do it without burden-sharing and you can't do it without changing, at least on the margins, the living conditions of Iraqis in the relatively near term.

I thank you all very, very much. You've been very gracious.

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