CNN Judy Woodruff's Inside Politics - Transcript

CNN

SHOW: JUDY WOODRUFF'S INSIDE POLITICS 16:00

August 19, 2004 Thursday

HEADLINE: Kerry Defends Vietnam Record; Could Dems Reclaim the House?

GUESTS: Larry Thurlow, Mark Leibovich, James Carney, Donna Brazile, Bay Buchanan, Robert Matsui, Thomas Reynolds

BYLINE: Candy Crowley, Dan Lothian, Bruce Morton, Jill Dougherty, William Schneider

BODY:

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CROWLEY: The lion's share of our attention has been focused in recent months on the coming presidential election, but there are many congressional races at stake this November, as well. In fact, all of them.

Joining us those contests and their potential impact are California Representative Robert Matsui, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and his Republican counterpart, Representative Thomas Reynolds of New York.

Thank you both.

I want to start out, Congressman Matsui with a sore point here, and that is Rodney Alexander. He has made your hill a little steeper, has he not, by going from Democrat to Republican?

REP. ROBERT MATSUI (D), CALIFORNIA: Well, we're not quite sure yet, because we're going to try to take him off the ballot and obviously make this a fair (ph) race. In fact, if we are successful in that effort.

That brings us 12 seats down, if in fact he remains on the ballot, provided we can't find anybody to run against him.

And we have right now 38 congressional districts that are currently held by Republicans that we have first year candidates. So we're very confident, as long as the national mood remains as it is.

And obviously, the American public right now is very, very skeptical of this administration and the Republican House and Senate, because things aren't going well.

CROWLEY: Well, I want to get to the down ballot effect, but I first want to ask Congressman Reynolds, Nancy Pelosi, of course, has said that, in fact, if the election were to happen today, the Democrats would take over the House.

REP. THOMAS REYNOLDS ®, NEW YORK: She also said she'd put her credibility on it, and quite frankly, it just isn't going to happen.

Rodney Alexander's switch to a Republican was devastating news to the Democrats. It was a huge setback. He will be on the ballot. It is a frivolous lawsuit that's been entered by some of the Louisiana Democrats.

His popularity is strong enough, he will win no matter what his title of Republican, Democrat, independent behind his name. Rodney Alexander is a winner. He'll be with the Republican conference.

When you look at the math, the math is just plain simple. And when you look at Charlie Cook, who's been an independent observer of politics in the House, it's clear that he says the Democrats have a small, snowball's chance in hell of recap touring the majority this fall. I believe him.

CROWLEY: So, I mean, how many-Let me first sort of set the table, which is how many seats would you say, Congressman Matsui, are in play?

MATSUI: We have 38 Republican seats right now, as I mentioned, which we have first year candidates. And we have four in Pennsylvania. These are turnover seats. We have two in Colorado, and two in Connecticut, two in Washington state and a scattering of states throughout the country. You have Georgia, in which the Democratic performance is 62 percent.

As I said, if the election were held today, we would take the House back. We're 10 points ahead on the generic question in the CNN poll, and we're 22 points up in terms of right track/wrong track.

And Tom Reynolds could be whistling by the grave. But the reality is that since he's worried; I know he's worried. And he should be worried. I think we have a good shot.

Mainly because the American public, the mood has shifted completely. People are very skeptical of this administration. They don't like the idea of the war going on, and middle class Americans aren't gaining from the so-called economic recovery.

CROWLEY: Congressman Reynolds, let me give you a chance to respond. But I also want to know, you know, the conventional wisdom is, look, these races are about local issues. They are not about who's at the top of the ballot, and yet the war is such an overpowering issue.

Do you see that changing this year?

REYNOLDS: Candy, I've said so long and it's just so true, that House races, we build them from the ground up. Each race is customized to the district they're in.

And people are worried on House races what their congressman thinks about kitchen table issues: economy, jobs, taxes. And we think we have a record, and we have the opportunity to get that message out to voters.

When you look at generic polls, I've seen generics all over. We're used to running behind. July and October in 2000 and 2002 had the Republicans down in the generic ballot.

Just last week I think it was the Gallup poll had us even. That's not what's important. What's important is how the structure for House races is coming together.

I think Charlie Cook said it well when he said there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that the Democrats can get it. And let me just show you the math.

There's 195 Republican seats now that are in the bank that are Republicans to be reelected. Charlie Cook in 10 years has only predicted two wrong when he says that likely Republican seats, there's 19.

There is 214 seats. We have four to get out of 34 Republican leaning or toss-up seats. We are going to have not only 218. We're going to bring back our 229.

CROWLEY: Congressman, let me interrupt, because I want you to respond to that. You've got about 30 seconds, but I want to know, is it that George Bush hurts down ballot Republicans or that John Kerry helps down ballot Democrats?

MATSUI: Well, I don't think there's any question John Kerry's a great candidate for us. But the reality is the Republicans have been rubber stamped for George Bush, and they are responsible for the economy. They're responsible for what's going on internationally, and they're going to end up paying for it.

I'm glad that Tom Reynolds is saying let's join the issue on the economy, jobs and obviously the whole issue of international relations, because Democrats are going to win that battle.

CROWLEY: Congressman Robert Matsui for the Democrats; Thomas Reynolds for the Republicans. I wish we had more time. Come back.

REYNOLDS: Thank you.

MATSUI: Thanks.

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