USA Today - Rural Vote Courted In Missouri 'Barnburner'

USA Today: Rural Vote Courted In Missouri 'Barnburner'

July 13, 2006

By Andrea Stone
USA Today

CARL JUNCTION, Mo. -- State auditor Claire McCaskill was here recently talking hogs, ethanol and corporate farming to a handful of supporters sitting at the edge of a soybean field.

Southwest Missouri, the state's reddest bastion, gave McCaskill less than one in four votes in her unsuccessful bid for governor two years ago. The Democratic candidate, who is trying to unseat U.S. Sen. Jim Talent, admits she was "flat wrong" then to focus on getting Kansas City and St. Louis votes.

She notes rural voters are just as concerned about high prices for gas, health care and college tuition, as well as the war in Iraq. "Democrats allowed the conversation in rural America to be about social wedge issues," says McCaskill, 52, daughter of a feed store owner. "I've got to convince people in my own party that maybe the position they've taken is not the best for people who live here."

Republican state Sen. Norma Champion of Springfield says Talent has a proven record with rural voters. "Rural areas are very conservative," she says. "He's in touch with the values" here.

Attracting rural voters is key not only in Missouri, it's also a test Democrats must pass if they hope to pick up the six seats they need to win control of the Senate this fall. They have been inspired by the back-to-back victories of moderates Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, who became Virginia governors by appealing to rural "NASCAR voters."

Montana, Ohio and Arizona Democrats also are spending more time in rural areas, says Phil Singer of the party's Senate campaign committee.

McCaskill's rural focus, along with a stem cell research ballot initiative, an anti-incumbent mood and Missouri's role as a political bellwether, make this one of the most-watched Senate races this year.

"She has the issues, for the most part, on her side," said St. Louis University political scientist Ken Warren. "It's her election to lose."

Talent says McCaskill is out of step with most Missourians. "She has a very left-liberal record," he says, citing her support for abortion rights, opposition to tax cuts and "weakness" on national security because she wants to pull U.S. troops from Iraq within two years.

'Bad Republican times'

The Democrat may get help from someone who's not on the ballot: President Bush. A St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll last month showed Bush, who won the state twice, is viewed favorably by 39% here. Warren expects the Senate race will be a referendum on Bush and Republicans, even though the president helped Talent raise $1 million recently.

"Talent's problem is he's a Republican right now during bad Republican times," Warren said.

The senator disputes McCaskill's charge that he's a "rubber stamp" for Bush. Still, he didn't mention Bush by name at a campaign event in Joplin Saturday morning. When asked about it, he said, "Oh, gosh. It was not intentionally." At a nearly identical talk later in Springfield, Talent again did not utter Bush's name. "You have to run your own race," he said.

Both candidates have had close calls: McCaskill fell 3 percentage points short in the governor's contest. Talent beat Sen. Jean Carnahan in a special election by 21,354 votes in 2002.

"When you win by 1.3%, it's not like you're going to force all the competition out," says Talent, 49. He says that he has "a high confidence level" and that he will be re-elected but is still "running scared."

A St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll last month had McCaskill ahead for the first time, 49% to 43%, but her lead fell within the margin of error.

Leslie McCormack, 20, a Neosho college student who supports Talent, says McCaskill will be "hard to beat" because Democrats from around the country are pouring resources into the state to help her. "She's going to give him a run for his money," McCormack said.

To win independent voters, Talent stresses his work with Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., to combat methamphetamine. Talent's votes with his party dropped from 96% in 2004 to 84% last year, according to Congressional Quarterly magazine.

Talent touts on his website that he's "Changing Washington for Missouri," from encouraging ethanol production to sponsoring legislation to illuminate St. Louis' Gateway Arch in pink to honor Breast Cancer Awareness Month. As a former House member, lobbyist and senator, Talent has worked on or near Capitol Hill for 14 years.

McCaskill says that when the GOP controls the governor's mansion, statehouse, both Senate seats and five of nine House districts, Talent "will have a hard time convincing Missourians that he's all about change."

Polls show voters are unhappy with Republican Gov. Matt Blunt for cuts in Medicaid, which McCaskill calls "devastating." Talent spokesman Rich Chrismer said the senator won't comment on the state's Medicaid cuts because it is a state issue.

Stem cell initiative

The senator made an exception for a ballot initiative to protect stem cell research involving human embryos. He recently opposed it.

The issue has split Missouri Republicans. Blunt and the business community favor the proposal. At first, Talent was mum. In February, he angered religious conservatives by taking his name off a bill that would ban human cloning for stem cell research.

"It appeared he was waffling," said George Connor, a political scientist at Missouri State University in Springfield. "Talent stands to potentially lose some support from his base," who may stay home.

McCaskill is among the nearly two of three Missourians who support the initiative.

McCaskill has raised $2.9 million, compared with Talent's $7.6 million through July 7, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks campaign contributions. She reminds embattled family farmers that Talent, an Agriculture Committee member, is a top recipient of agribusiness contributions. The center says he's received $808,000 from agribusiness, compared with $25,000 for her.

Despite funding disparities, Western Illinois University political scientist Rick Hardy predicts the race will be "a real barnburner. If ever there was a time when Republicans may be somewhat vulnerable, it's now."

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