This is Biden's Last Chance to Deter Putin in Ukraine

Op-Ed

America faces the momentous choice between engagement and retreat for the third time in 100 years.

The first time, America chose wrong. We retreated to the international sidelines following World War I, and the League of Nations couldn't prevent a second world war without American leadership.

The second time, America chose right. We drew a hard line against Soviet expansion in the late 1940s, and the Allies defeated the Axis of Evil under American leadership.

Now, America must once again choose engagement. We must once again draw a hard line against Russian expansion. This time, to prevent Ukraine from becoming the first domino in a potential resurgence of the Soviet Union.

President Joe Biden's strategy of restraint, in the hope of not provoking Putin, hasn't worked. The U.S. doesn't need to fight in Ukraine to effectively deter Russia. But we can and must do more to help this democratic nation defend itself.

Thus far, President Biden hasn't done anything to put doubt in the mind of Putin.

President Biden started with threatening sanctions against Russia. Unfortunately, it's difficult to craft sanctions in a way that maximizes pain for Putin's cronies while minimizing damage to ordinary Russians.

The British capital is sometimes referred to as "Londongrad" for a reason -- too many Kremlin-linked elites operate outside Russia. That leaves those who already suffer enough under Putin's rule to deal with much of the aftereffects of standard sanctions.

The White House is smart to this reality. That's why President Biden most recently threatened the cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline -- the same one he inexplicably lifted sanctions on earlier this year. Still, it makes no difference to Putin.

Of course, cancellation of the Russia-to-Germany pipeline is dependent on our friends in Berlin. And right now, frankly, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is proving to be a weak link in a supposedly united NATO alliance -- so much so that Germany's ambassador to the U.S. felt compelled to warn him that Washington was coming to regard Germany as an "unreliable partner."

Germany is dependent on Russian natural gas. Subsequently, we cannot depend on Scholz to commit his country to ending Nord Steam 2. Putin is well aware of that reality. This is not even to mention Russia's new $117.5 billion oil and gas deal with China. Now, with a secure economic lifeline to Beijing, Putin has everything he needs to defy the United States and the international community.

President Biden's least effective deterrence strategy has been the positioning of 3,000 U.S. troops in Poland, Germany, and Romania. This was a major physical movement, but it is moot for a simple reason: Putin has no immediate intention of threatening these nations. His present mission is the invasion of Ukraine, and we aren't doing enough to help them defend against Russia's aggression.

But while Putin may not fear troops, sanctions or President Biden, there is one clear path to deterrence: A well-armed, well-organized Ukrainian resistance.

The strength and influence of world leaders -- even autocrats such as Putin -- comes from their citizens. The Russian people will accept Russian casualties as part of a military invasion. But the Russian people will not accept week after week of Russian soldiers returning home in body bags at the hands of Ukrainian insurgents.

The Ukrainian people want to be free. They do not want to be part of Russia, and, according to both human and open-source intelligence, they are willing to fight for that freedom.

President Biden's handling of this situation will have humanitarian and geopolitical effects worldwide. If Russia is allowed to swallow Ukraine, tens of thousands could die and even more will be forced to flee their home. And if America is once again perceived as weak -- a consequence of President Biden's historically disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal -- our adversaries will be further emboldened and our allies further skeptical.

America cannot afford another major misstep on the international stage. President Biden must immediately state his intention to arm and support Ukrainian freedom fighters should Russia choose to invade.

It is undoubtedly late in the day, but there is still time to deter Putin. President Biden simply needs to demonstrate the political will to act.

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