The Desert News - Rep. Chris Stewart: Are We Underestimating the Human Costs of the Lockdown Strategy?

Op-Ed

By Chris Stewart

While the world has been focused on mitigating the physical impact of the COVID-19 disease, the economic fallout of a global lockdown is beginning to have severe repercussions on mental health, global poverty and national security. While the virus targets the sick and elderly, the lockdown is hitting everyone hard. For example, among the hardest hit are the world's millions of children living on the edge of despair.

As we develop policies to confront this deadly virus, we need to consider an array of factors that we may have overlooked.

Fortunately, the virus has proved far less deadly than initially believed. The numbers of projected deaths continue to be revised downward. Treatments and vaccines in development offer new hope. As we learn more about how the virus works, we are able to adapt more targeted behaviors and policies.

Moving forward, it is imperative that we measure the public health impact of virus containment against the very real economic impacts on American workers, on vulnerable populations globally, and on our own security. A perpetual lockdown may be helpful in eradicating disease outbreaks but could prove deadly on an even larger scale.

Here at home, economists estimate less than half of working age Americans will be earning a wage in the month of May. The mental health implications of an unemployment rate projected to rival that of the Great Depression are alarming. From my previous work on suicide prevention, I know that up to 20% of attempted suicides are linking to unemployment. As more and more Americans experience loneliness, depression and fear, they are at greater risk for suicide, domestic violence and homelessness.

During the peak of the Great Depression in 1932, suicide rates hit a record high of 21.9 per 100,00 people, which is significantly higher than today's rate of about 14 per 100,000. In Los Angeles, the mental health crisis line reported an 8,000% increase in monthly call volume during the month of March. Consider that a moment. An 8,000% increase. Domestic violence calls in Utah have also spiked, according to local police.

The mental health impacts at home are just the beginning. The United Nations warned in an April policy brief that the world's poor -- and particular the world's children -- are at increased risk. For the world's 100 million street children who survive by scavenging food on the streets, the implications of strict lockdown orders and breakdowns in the global food supply chain can mean starvation.

The U.N. estimates between 42 million and 66 million children could join the 386 million children who are already living in extreme poverty, many in crowded and unsanitary conditions with no access to clean water. The report further suggests school closures threaten the 368.5 million children in 143 countries who depend on school meals as a reliable source of daily nutrition.

Both at home and abroad, the public health threat is exacerbated by strict lockdowns that hamper access to routine health screenings and disrupt cancer treatments. Later diagnoses, disrupted treatment and untreated illness threaten to make curable conditions deadly. How many Americans will have their health impacted in a negative way because they were unable to complete normal screening for cancers and other diseases?

Finally, we cannot overlook the serious national security implications of this dramatic event. Completely unnoticed in the national media is the fact that China has reasserted its "One-China" policy over Taiwan and arrested prominent pro-democracy leaders throughout Hong Kong, using the virus as a pretext to crackdown on any who would challenge their authority over the city.

With the dramatic decline in oil revenues, Russia is facing an economic catastrophe. Iran is facing the same. Many poor countries will be unable to feed their impoverished people as supply chains are broken from the rest of the world slipping into severe economic decline. The potential for social disturbance and upheaval has increased dramatically over the past 30 days, leaving the world far less stable and more unpredictable than it was just a few weeks ago. This is a reality the U.S. military is confronted with. Adding to these concerns is the reality of our own diminished capabilities as we struggle to protect our fighting forces.

Thirty days ago, we didn't know how serious the virus was, how deadly it would be, or how it would respond to treatment. With what we now know, we must consider the bigger picture. We don't have the luxury of single-mindedly focusing on the number of deaths from coronavirus when we know there are other negative outcomes that should also be measured.

I'm not suggesting we disregard public health or human life. But we must measure it against the other costs as we make important decisions in the days to come.

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