Two Respected Election Analysts Move PA-16 into Competitive Categories
Press Release
In new House rankings announced today, Sabato's Crystal Ball moved PA-16 from "likely" to "leans Republican," and Cook Political Report moved the race from "likely Republican" to "leans Republican".
This news is the latest evidence showing the race becoming more competitive with Christina Hartman's strong campaign and a toxic Donald Trump leading the Republican ticket.
Recent polling shows Christina Hartman within striking distance of Lloyd Smucker and Hillary Clinton winning the district by 4 points.
Review the ratings change below:
Sabato's Crystal Ball on PA-16:
Finally, a few other Republican-held seats could be sleeper pickup opportunities for Democrats. Most promising among this trio is the open PA-16, a Republican-leaning district that contains fast-growing Lancaster County as well as parts of Reading, an old industrial town that is now more than half Hispanic. Trump's weakness in Greater Philadelphia may extend all the way to this district, perhaps providing an opening to Democrats. It moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
Cook Political Report on PA-16:
The conventional wisdom was that construction contractor and GOP state Sen. Lloyd Smucker won this Lancaster-based seat in the April primary. But Democratic non-profit consultant Christina Hartman has run a surprisingly energetic campaign, outraising Smucker $352,000 to $324,000 in the third quarter and taking advantage of both the cheap Lancaster media market and Trump's unpopularity in the outer Philadelphia suburbs.
Hartman is up with an ad using footage from the Access Hollywood tape and a recent rally where Smucker introduced Trump. This week, her campaign released a GBA Strategies poll showing Smucker up just 45 percent to 42 percent. It makes sense: the 16th CD includes the heavily Latino city of Reading, well-educated suburbs in Chester County and Trump-skeptic religious conservatives in Lancaster. Now, Republicans have no choice but to engage.
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