Hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee - Iraq After the Surge: Military Prospects

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SEN. NORM COLEMAN (R-MN): Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Let me get back to the question that Senator Hagel raised which is how do we get out of this mess, and General Scales, without chaos reigning.

I think it would be fair to say that most people wouldn't agree that getting on boats and planes and moving us right out would result in any thing other chaos reigning, but I'm not going to get into that discussion.

I -- and particularly as you look at others in the area the -- who need to play a stronger role, the Sunni nations, even they have that concern and the question is how can they play a constructive role.

Let me get back to the question, just -- one other observation, because hindsight is always 20-20, and it really goes by the way to the point of this surge by making this observation.

There were those in this Congress who, first of all, Petraeus has brought us to a place, a different place than we were a year-and-a- half ago, in terms of stability and in terms of some of the possibilities. Again, the question is how do we take advantage of that.

You know, a year-and-a-half ago, two years ago, those of -- some wanted us to get out and Anbar was controlled by al Qaeda at that point in time. I had doubts about what General Petraeus could do in terms of the sectarian violence, as this played up again but even that has significantly declined, so I -- he has brought us to a place. The question, how do we take advantage of that.

First, Ms. Flournoy, I want to push you with a little more specificity. The Chairman said put it in writing, but you've really read out one strategy and its conditional engagement, that's the strategy, the realistic option.

What are one or two of the things that we could do to put pressure on the Iraqis to move forward on the political side? Petraeus has given us some space. The Iraqis are -- and some of them are moving forward.

The problem is Maliki doesn't have the credibility, doesn't have -- has not shown the ability to do the things that have to be done, to provide for a real resolution of any of the sectarian concerns.

What are one or two of the things that we could do to show, to say, if you don't do this, here's a price that you pay and we'll make sure that price is paid, to move you quicker to deal with some of the political problems?

MS. FLOURNOY: Thank you, Senator. Just one example. I think we are at a point of great leverage but, you know, but perishable as we negotiate this bilateral agreement with the Iraqis.

One of the things that they are seeking is a long-term commitment of security assistance to build the -- and support the Iraqi security forces.

I think we should make a -- use that request on their behalf as a -- as leverage to say, "Look, the only way that we're going to provide you with that assistance is if you make that institution fully representative of your population, and that means integrating Sunnis in a real way into the armed forces of Iraq.

"If you don't do it, you're building a sectarian institution. We cannot provide the security assistance you need."

That's an example of a very concrete place that we could use our leverage to push a form of political accommodation that will be a key factor as the Sunnis decide whether to keep out of the insurgency or whether to restart it before the end of the year.

SEN. COLEMAN: Got another one? Major General Scales?

GEN. SCALES: Let me offer one. One of the problems that we've had in doing what Michele just suggested is in the senior ranks, both in the ministries, in the senior ranks of the military.

Everybody in the U.S. command can tell you who the good guys and who the bad guys are, who is loyal to clan, tribe or sect, and who is loyal to the nations.

One of the things that we need to insist on as we -- or to hold hostage to us giving them additional assistance is for us to play a greater role in getting rid of incompetence, of those who are not loyal to the nation -- I don't mean loyal to the regime, but loyal to the nation and those who simply don't have the military skills necessary to do what I just suggested in my opening remarks.

We know who they are. We just haven't had the leverage that we need to get to them.

SEN. COLEMAN: But how do you -- I'm sorry, Ms. Flournoy.

MS. FLOURNOY: Another example on the economic side. Again, Iraqis are asking for things like favorable trade relations, all kinds of future economic investments. Again we're not interested in even beginning that discussion until you pass an oil law that guarantees the equitable distribution of oil-wealth to all of the parties in Iraq.

I mean, it's things in other -- a political one. We want to see free, fair, open-list elections, provincial in the fall, national next year and if -- you know, our political support is contingent on those things happening.

Again, it's -- there are obvious connections that we've refused to make in the past, worrying that we're going to push them too hard, too fast. I think we're at the point where we have to push them as hard as we can because time's run out.

SEN. COLEMAN: I would agree with that assessment. General McCaffrey -- both generals -- General Petraeus is going to come up here and at least by all accounts indicate -- say that let's kind of catch our breath a second.

We've moved -- we're going to be moving what five divisions, we'll be moving out. What do you -- as we sit up here, this is graduate level stuff, you know, unfortunately in this body, folks are often motivated by the next election rather than anything else.

The American public is speaking, there's no question about that. So what is it -- how do we -- what do we say to push him to more aggressively move forward?

It seems to me that everyone agrees that we're drawn down. There is no question about that. We cannot sustain what we have and that whether we draw down -- again, I would disagree with General Odom, but draw down in a way that avoids chaos over -- there has got to be some period of time.

What is it that -- what do we say to General Petraeus when he comes and says, we need to kind of catch our breath. Catch our breath for what?

What would be the -- what's the response to the guy sitting up here, who's not a general and this is graduate level stuff and he's done some things that some of us question whether he could do.

What's the statement we make to him?

GEN. MCCAFFREY: Well, by the way, I wouldn't give undue credibility to generals either. You know, I'd be very cautious about --

SEN. COLEMAN: We've got some disagreement right here among generals as --

GEN. MCCAFFREY: Yeah.

SEN. COLEMAN: -- to approach, absolutely.

GEN. MCCAFFREY: You know, I think -- in fact, let me make that point. I think General Odom, a very smart man, says this thing is hopeless. I don't agree at all.

I don't -- do not believe it's impossible to build an Iraqi army that will see themselves as a nationalist force and have integrated Shi'a, Sunni, Kurds, I don't believe it.

I've been to their battalions. The two Iraqi divisions out at Anbar province are now 60 percent Sunni. They've put 14,000 Sunni boys into the police force.

So I think his premise, throw up your hands, get down to the boats, set your equipment on fire, is just not valid. Nor would our vital allies, the Saudis and the Gulf Coast states want to see us with the Persian empire on their northern border and the country in flames.

So I do think we have a responsibility under international law to try and build an Iraqi security force where we go out, and I think that's feasible. And I also think -- I wouldn't push General Petraeus. This guy is as good as we can produce.

He is just absolutely world class. We need to have him hold it together until the next administration comes in and then we need a national consensus, what do we do next.

Step one of that consensus is, get out of Iraq. The question is, do we do it in a year, or three years. A lot of that will be dependent upon how the Iraqis respond.

I -- Senator Biden has made a terrific argument in the past about, you know, a looser federal structure in Iraq. I think we no longer have a vote in the political future of Iraq. I don't think we can meter out embedded trainers and possibility of trade sanctions.

These people are going to decide it in their own way. I don't think it's necessarily going to be a catastrophe, but it sure doesn't look good right now.

SEN. COLEMAN: Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

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