MR. SIEGEL: The Republican effort to win back control of Congress a year from now looks like it could be a hard slog. Republicans are behind in the so-called generic polls, which ask people which party they would be more likely to vote for. They're behind in fundraising and several GOP members are retiring. And that means turning seats where there's a Republican with a natural advantage -- an incumbent -- into open seats, which are typically contested far more competitively.
Well, the man charged with leading the National Republican Congressional Committee, which supports Republican House candidates, is Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma.
Welcome to the program.
REP. COLE: Hey, Robert. Good to be here.
MR. SIEGEL: The most recent numbers I've seen at the end of September, your committee had $1.6 million in cash on hand, a little bit over $3 million in debts. And the Democrats -- the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee -- had more than $28 million in the bank and debts of about $3 million. Why are you so far behind?
REP. COLE: I guess the Democrats have become the party of the rich. Seriously, frankly, we began the year with a very substantial debt -- much larger than this committee, or frankly, any committee's ever had. And we've had to focus on getting that paid down. So that's been a big part of our challenge and we're almost there and we'll get there pretty quickly.
The second thing that has happened is the Democrats have collected what's called "the winners premium" in politics. You know, when you become the new majority you get a lot of new friends. Some of those are on K Street in the business community. And they've spent about a year, I think, trying to romance the Democrats. I think, ultimately, they won't be very happy with the result.
MR. SIEGEL: You're going to go romance them instead and get back the advantage?
REP. COLE: Well, you know, I think if you're the business community it's hard, ultimately, to make a long-term relationship with the party whose principle contributors are labor unions, trial lawyers, consumer advocates, environmentalists. I mean, there's a natural clash of interests there.
MR. SIEGEL: Fourteen House Republicans are retiring. First, how does that effect the way that your party's going to marshal its resources, and does it indeed make it harder for you to think about winning back the majority?
REP. COLE: It really doesn't as much as most people think. We lost 21 retirees in the last cycle, so the number here is not unusual. It may well come in ultimately a little bit lower. The real question is who's retiring and where are they retiring from. The majority of these seats are very strongly Republican, and frankly, were carried by the president even in the years that he lost the popular vote in 2000 and barely won it in 2004. So we think those seats are very likely to remain Republican.
MR. SIEGEL: But those are 14 races where you're going to have to raise a lot more money than if you were reelecting an incumbent, isn't it?
REP. COLE: Not necessarily. There'll be some of those seats we don't spend a dime in. You know, you don't have to invest in a seat that you're going to win anyway. So we think that there's a lot less of an opening here than the Democrats might suggest, but there certainly is an opening.
MR. SIEGEL: Among issues that you face, how big does the war loom over the Republican Party at this point?
REP. COLE: I think it's certainly an issue, although a lot will depend on how things look on the ground. And frankly, they have gotten better over the last couple of months. And a lot will depend on how the presidential candidates of the two parties frame it. And as we continue to drawdown -- and I think we will next year if there's political progress and security progress in Iraq -- I think that becomes an important issue. Anytime Americans are in combat it's extraordinarily important, but I don't think it dominates the political landscape as much as it did in 2006.
MR. SIEGEL: But do you think the tactical gains in Iraq are translating at this point at all into greater support for the U.S. remaining longer in Iraq?
REP. COLE: I think it will. And frankly, you know, the Democrats, as you get closer to Election Day, have become increasingly realistic in their rhetoric. You know, I listened to the Democratic presidential debate. We didn't have a single leading contender on the Democratic side willing to commit to have American forces out by 2013. That doesn't sound like a party that is going to have a dramatically different Iraq policy than what we're seeing right now.
I think a lot of this, frankly, has been political theatrics, as opposed to being a realistic discussion about what the stakes are for the United States and the Middle East. And you know, a lot of the Democratic gains have been, frankly, Bush bashing. I think that gets harder when he's not going to be on the ballot. As I tell some of my friends on the other side, you can like or dislike the president. He's not going to be on the ballot next time and I think you make a mistake to spend all your time attacking him and frankly, not enough time working with him to get things done, because this Congress will be on the defensive in terms of what its record is. It won't simply be a minority able to be offensive and attack the state of things as they exist.
MR. SIEGEL: Well, Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, thank you very much for talking with us.
REP. COLE: Robert, my pleasure.